The Rules
The rules are simple: we flip a coin to determine who selects first. After that, Kage and myself alternate picks until all 32 first round picks are made.
In addition to the basic premise, we set guidelines for making our picks. First, we assume that all teams are as they are and free agents are still on the team. Second and more importantly, we are picking as we think the teams should and not as we think they will. This is a "if we were the GMs, this is our thinking" mock draft, not a "this is who we think that particular GM will pick" mock draft. That rule is simply because it's more fun to think of what a smart GM would do, rather than try to guess what moronic move Jerry Jones will make this year.
The coin flip was called tails by Kage and landed tails, so K will pick first with yours truly going second, and so on.
The coin flip was called tails by Kage and landed tails, so K will pick first with yours truly going second, and so on.
Without further ado, our first mock draft!
The Draft
1. Houston – Teddy Bridgewater, QB, Louisville
Although the Texans need
major help on the offensive line, the quarterback play was so dismal that it
would be almost unthinkable that Houston passes on grabbing a prospect at the
league's most important position. New head coach Bill O'Brien has a good
history of working with young quarterbacks. He somehow won with Matt McGloin,
and then got good performance out of true freshman Christian Hackenberg.
O'Brien runs a pro-style offense, and Bridgewater is the best fit for that
style. He has the intelligence and accuracy to make smart NFL throws, but
has the athleticism to move around the pocket. He was in a system at
Louisville that had him making quick decisions at the line of scrimmage, which
will help in soaking up a new offensive scheme. His size is his biggest
issue (6'3", 195, though this will likely come down at the combine), and
that will make the Texans flirt with UCF's Blake Bortles. However,
Bridgewater is the most NFL-ready QB prospect in this draft class.
Despite their 2-14 record, the Texans have the pieces. Bridgewater is the
player that gives them the best chance to compete in 2014.
2. St Louis (from Washington) – Sammy Watkins,
WR, Clemson
The St Louis Rams have two
options to choose between when approaching this draft: Find a replacement for Sam
Bradford at QB and use the second pick on the most talent player or try to take
the next step in a tough NFC West and select two players in the top 13 that can
help immediately. If Teddy
Bridgewater was on the table, the Rams would have a tough decision between
those two options, but with him off the table, the decision is an easy one to
make. Now that that is
decided, the pick comes down to one of three players: Jadeveon Clowney, Jake
Matthews, or Sammy Watkins. Jadeveon
Clowney is the best player available, but the Rams already have Robert Quinn
and Chris Long. Do you spend this high of a pick on a backup DE? Jake Matthews
would provide depth behind Rodger Saffold and Jake Long, with Long coming off a
torn ACL, but Matthews isn’t a huge upgrade at the tackle position and another
talented OL can easily be grabbed at the 13th pick. Do you draft a player from a deep
position and pass on an equally talented player at a position of need at a
position with scarcer talent in this draft? Finally, Sammy Watkins is the most
talented WR in this draft and plays at a position of great need for the Rams,
but WRs at the top of the draft are very risky. Do you take that risk to fill a need
at this high in the draft? Watkins
is the best choice in this situation. The Rams have the talent at TE
(Jared Cook) and slot (Tavon Austin), but no outside WR to stretch the field
and open up the middle of the field for those two. With Sammy outside, the Rams give
Bradford one last season to prove he’s their guy, while also giving the team
the best chance at competing next season.
3. Jacksonville – Jadeveon Clowney, DE, South
Carolina
The Jaguars need help at
multiple positions. Their offense finished last in scoring by almost
2 PPG, and finished second to last in yards per game. On the other side,
the defense ranked in the bottom five in both yards per game and points per
game, and were dead last in sacks. It's still a mystery how they were
able to win 3 straight games at one point (even if it was Cleveland and Houston
twice). Jacksonville is in no position to by overly choosy at
the number three pick-they need so much that they should take
the most talented player. That is DE Jadeveon Clowney,
who wowed the college football world with his freak athletic ability,
exemplified by obliterating Michigan's Vincent Smith in the 2013 Outback
Bowl. Clowney has a combination of speed, size, and strength that he
can be used for multiple roles on the line. He was criticized
for weak numbers in the 2013 season, but he was constantly
double-teamed and was already thinking of entering the NFL. Coach
Gus Bradley, who was the defensive coordinator for some excellent Seattle
defenses, runs a 4-3 and uses the weak-side DE in a way that is perfect for
Clowney's skill set (and making him a better fit than UCLA's Anthony
Barr). Blake Bortles was in consideration, but there are too many
questions for him to be a #3 overall pick. The Jaguars will have round 2
or 3 to select a quarterback.
4. Cleveland – Anthony Barr, OLB, UCLA
The Cleveland Browns are in
an unenviable situation. Their major needs seem to be offensive skill
players and a corner opposite of Joe Haden. In this mock draft, that
leaves the Browns either reaching to fill a need or taking the most talented
player to add depth at a position. In the real world, I would begin
working the phones to trade down and add a few extra assets. In this mock
world, though, I'm stuck making a choice that would be best for the
Browns. The players that get consideration at the positions of need are
Blake Bortles, Johnny Manziel, Carlos Hyde, Marqise Lee, Mike Evans, and Justin
Gilbert. Only the quarterbacks would be worth the reach at this point, so
they are the players of consideration for need. The best remaining
players are Jake Matthews, Anthony Barr, and Kahlil Mack. The Browns
offensive is filled with young Pro Bowlers, so Matthews would not be a good use
of the pick. Kahlil Mack and Anthony Barr provide talent to a linebacking
corps that already is pretty talented, but Anthony Barr is the better fit for
the Browns 3-4. While the quarterbacks would be tempting, I think they
are too much of a risk at #4 overall, and with a second first round pick, the
Browns can afford to wait on a quarterback instead of reaching. Instead,
the Browns add a great pass rushing OLB in the Terrell Suggs mold to help the
Browns defense continue to develop towards the standards for the AFC
North set by the 2000s Ravens.
5. Oakland – Johnny Manziel, QB, Texas A&M
Like the Jaguars, the
Raiders need help all over the place, but really struggled on the offensive
side of the ball. They have finished in the bottom third in
scored for the past 2 years. They do not have a quarterback of the
future, and are also weak on skilled playmakers. They did take Tyler
Wilson in the 4th round last year, but he was beaten out by Matt McGloin, which
gives very little confidence in Wilson's prospects. If Sammy Watkins was
still on the board, this would be an easy decision to make-Watkins is the exact
type of player that the Silver and Black have fallen in love with in the
past. Jake Matthews was also a strong possibility, but the lack of talent
behind the line is a more pressing issue for the Raiders. Oakland OC
Greg Olson has worked with QBs in the past, including Josh Freeman at Tampa
and Drew Brees at Purdue. Manziel is a spectacular athlete and
improved on many aspects of his passing game for the 2013 season. His
biggest knocks are his size (6'0", 200 lbs) and his
attitude. However, we've seen success in shorter guys like Brees or
Russell Wilson, and many of Manziel's maturity issues are likely to
go away once he leaves college behind. Plus, his perceived cockiness is
what the Oakland organization is all about. Johnny Football is the type
of player that Olson can build a unique offensive system around and the Raiders
can build around in this and future drafts.
6. Atlanta – Jake Matthews, OT, Texas A&M
The Falcons make it
back-to-back Aggies in the top 6 while filling a major need with the best
offensive lineman in the draft. Atlanta had a bad season this past
season, but that wasn't due to having a no-talent team. Instead, the
Falcons were ravaged by injuries, including losing their top two
playmakers, Julio Jones and Roddy White, to injuries and
ineffectiveness. Those two coming back will solve a lot of the issues for
the offense, but the two biggest issues this team had this past season
were getting to the opposing quarterback and running the ball and those issues
still need to be addressed. The best way to solve those issues is by
bolstering the two lines. The best
remaining DL are DT Timmy Jernigan and DE Stephon Tuitt. The better
talent of the two is Jernigan, but he would not be a three-down player for the
Falcons D, and while Tuitt would be, his value is not equal to the number 6 pick
in the draft. On the flip side of the line, the Falcons could use an
upgrade at every position on the O-line. With the best tackle in the
draft, Jake Matthews, still available, the Falcons have the easiest choice to
make. Take the cornerstone tackle with a great NFL bloodline
and don’t worry about that position again for at least a decade.
7. Tampa Bay – Kahlil Mack, LB, Buffalo
New coach Lovie Smith will
be looking to make a defensive splash with the Bucs first round pick. Smith
will be bringing the Tampa-2 back to its birthplace, and doing so will require
some unique skill sets that Tampa will need to acquire. The defense
starts on the line and requires the linemen to create pressure on the opponents
QB without the promise of blitzing LBs or DBs. Tampa only recorded 35
sacks in 2013 (compare to 60, the league best), and will need to improve on the
pass rush greatly in order to make Lovie's system work. Enter Khalil
Mack, who surprised all the scouts with his 2013 season, setting records in
tackles for loss and forced fumbles (another trademark of a Lovie Smith
team). Mack also has the versatility of dropping into coverage and making
tackles in open space. This is a do-it-all pass rusher that will help
make for an easier first season for Lovie. Expect for him to start as a
defensive end and use his speed to disrupt the passing game, and then watch as
his role is expanded.
8. Minnesota – Blake Bortles, QB, Central
Florida
The Vikings are a very
talented five win team. While most teams drafting in this area of the
draft looked terrible this past season, Minnesota got better as the season went
along and towards the end, was competing in every single game they
played. With the most talented running back in the league along with a
strong offensive line and dangerous skill players on the edge, the Vikings
offense should be one of the best in the league. Instead, they struggle
year after year with no quarterback capable of playing consistently enough to
take advantage of all that talent. On the flip side of the ball, the
defensive line is getting older and the cornerbacks did struggle at
times, making both areas prime areas for improvements through the
draft. Timmy Jernigan could be a good pick, but the
Vikings are probably looking for more of a classic pass rushing
type to learn from Jared Allen. Justin Gilbert could be an
option at corner because Chris Cook had a very up-and-down season.
Still, Cook and Marcus Sherels provide solid play with one of last year's
first round picks, Xavier Rhodes, playing strong at the CB2 position. In
the end, the best option going forward for Minnesota is to provide a
quarterback to take the pressure off of Purple Jesus and the 2014 version of
the Purple People Eaters. Blake Bortles is the player that could take the
Vikings from competitive five win team to playoff team, which is not something
that could be said for Jernigan, Gilbert or any other pick the Vikings could
make at this spot. Is Bortles a risk? Yes (and a very large one in my
opinion), but based on the other options at this spot, he's the best value
and a risk worth taking at pick number eight.
9. Buffalo – Mike Evans, WR, Texas A&M
The Bills spent their first round draft pick on a
quarterback in 2013, FSU's E.J. Manuel. Manuel struggled in his rookie
year with injuries, playing in only 10 games. He was not awful, as far as
rookie QBs go, throwing 11 TDs and almost 2,000 yards. The Bills need to
put skill players around him on offense to truly evaluate him as their franchise
quarterback. There are no running backs that are worth spending a pick
this high on (I'd be surprised if one even goes in the first round), so the
Bills will look to add to their receiving corps. Stevie Johnson is their
top WR, but his skills are declining and he is not a true number one.
Rookie Robert Woods emerged in the second half. What the Bills really
lack is a tall, possession-type receiver who can give Manuel a target in the
red zone. Mike Evans is 6'5", 225 and is exactly that go-up-and-get-it
WR that the Bills could use. Evans had an excellent 2013 as Johnny
Football's top target and had two 250+ yard games against Alabama and Auburn,
along with 12 TD's. The selection of Evans also gives TAMU three picks in
the top 10.
10. Detroit – Justin Gilbert, CB, Oklahoma
State
A team with this much talent should not be drafting in the
top ten, plain and simple. Their biggest issue this past season was discipline
and the Lions front office have already made the move to fix that by firing Jim
Schwartz. Aside from coaching-related fixes, the other two areas in
need of help are a wide receiver to take some of the heat off of Megatron
and help in the secondary. With two wide receivers already selected, that
leaves Marqise Lee as the only option at WR, but a pretty good one at
that. On the flip side, a shutdown corner is a bigger need than safety,
so the options there seem to be Justin Gilbert or Darqueze Dennard. While
I think both players are very good and worth that pick at number ten, Dennard's
one major knock is a lack of discipline and taking too many penalties.
Adding him to a team that already suffers from that is a recipe for disaster,
so I'll take Gilbert over him for this particular team. At the end of the
day, adding Marqise Lee would be a boon for the offense, but the offense wasn't
the problem. The defense lost them a few games by being unable to stop
the passing attack of the opposing teams, so Justin Gilbert can provide depth
his first season as a CB2 behind Rashean Mathis and hopefully develop into
the shutdown corner they need within a few seasons.
11. Tennessee – Greg Robinson, OT, Auburn
The Titans are a team without any glaring needs, provided
that Jake Locker can finally provide some consistency that the Titans have
lacked at QB, partly due to Locker's health issues. The two most talented
players on the board are Greg Robinson, the young tackle from Auburn, or C.J.
Mosley, the linebacker from Alabama. Since Locker and Chris Johnson are
the keys to the Titans offense, Tennessee will choose to protect them by drafting
Robinson. The Tiger OT has started almost every game after his redshirt
year and was a big reason that Auburn's running offense took them to the BCS
National Championship. He helped both Tre Mason and Nick Marshall put up
Heisman-caliber seasons and showed excellence in clearing out the defense
lineman and blocking downfield. Robinson's late season performance has
sent him shooting up the draft boards. It remains to be seen
how Robinson will handle an NFL offense that passes more than 10
times a game, but the metrics say he has the size, power, and athleticism to
excel in all aspects of the offense line game.
12. New York Giants – Eric Ebron, TE, North
Carolina
The Giants offensive line struggled mightily this
season, as they failed to protect Eli quite often and the running game was
non-existent, but the offensive tackles are both young and talented, so taking
a guard at this spot might be a reach. Elsewhere on offense, Eli has
very few weapons outside of Victor Cruz, as Brandon Myers was a flop at
TE, Hakeem Nicks is starting to look old, the rest of the receiving corps
is mediocre at best, and let's just say that the running back situation isn't
great. Defensively, they have some decent young players in the LB corps
and the secondary, but they both could use some depth. The defensive line
is getting older with Tuck, Jenkins, and Patterson all over the age of 30, but
they just drafted Damontre Moore and Johnathan Hankins last year, so they
can hold off on that. The best thing the Giants can do at this position
is take the most talented weapon available for Eli, and plan to upgrade the
guard position in the later rounds. That leaves two choices: Marqise Lee
or Eric Ebron. As much as I'd love to put Marqise Lee on this team, he'd
be the third WR, while Ebron would immediately bump Myers to TE2. For the
most bang for their buck, the Giants are best suited to draft the
ultra-talented Ebron and give Eli another option that will also help in pass
protection as a safety valve.
13. St Louis – CJ Mosley, ILB, Alabama
After securing their biggest offensive need with the number
2 overall pick, the Rams turn to defense with the number 13 pick. They
can build off of an excellent pass rushing defensive line, which has both skill
and youth in Robert Quinn and Chris Long. I see St. Louis looking at two
Alabama players for this spot- LB C.J. Mosley and S Ha Ha Clinton-Dix.
Both players have the experience in playing on well coached Crimson Tide
squads and are the best players available at their respective positions.
However, using a top 15 pick on a safety is only warranted on a can't-miss
player, and Clinton-Dix is not that guy, no matter how awesome his name is.
Instead, the Rams select Mosley, who is a multiple year starter at
Alabama and was the unquestioned leader of the 2013 squad. Mosley is
another all-around LB who can play at multiple spots and will fit in well
alongside second year man Alec Ogletree and James Laurinaitis. Mosley has
the cover skills to drop into the defensive backfield, blitz, or sniff out the
run. With Mosley in the mix, the Rams will have one of the more
formidable front-sevens in the NFL. Mosley's biggest issues are his
injury history, which is always scary when you are dealing with a multi-year
starter from a major university. If he stays healthy, he is the future on-field
coach of a vaunted Rams defense.
14. Chicago – Timmy Jernigan, DT, Florida State
On one side of the ball, you have an offense that blossomed
in its first season under offensive guru Marc Trestman, turning into an
unstoppable scoring machine even with career backup Josh McCown at the helm for
a large chunk of the season. Needless to say, that side of the ball
doesn't need addressing in the draft. On the other side of the ball, it's
a complete and utter mess. The defensive line needs help (especially DT,
where the players are all either old, ineffective, free agents, or a
combination of the three). The linebacking corps needs to be bolstered
around the young Jon Bostic, their future defensive captain. Finally, the
secondary needs a lot of help outside of Tim Jennings and Major Wright (i.e.,
multiple CBs and a safety). There is no linebacker worthy of this pick,
so we will focus on the DL or secondary. Darqueze Dennard and Ha Ha
Clinton-Dix would both be great upgrades in the secondary for Chicago, but I
follow the school of thought that you build from your lines out and Chicago’s
defensive lin is in desperate need of
some talent. Lo and behold, the most talented defensive player left on
the board is a versatile DT who will fit perfectly in Chicago. Timmy
Jernigan will provide a disruptive force at DT who can shore up one of the
worst running defenses in the league, while also making Julius Peppers and Jon
Bostic more effective by eating more blockers on the interior.
15. Pittsburgh – Darqueze Dennard, CB, Michigan
State
The Steelers biggest problem in 2013 was a lack a depth.
They had no one to replace C Maurkice Pouncey when he went down early
with a knee injury, and had no one opposite of Antonio Brown for Ben
Roethlisberger to throw to. This will make players like Marqise Lee from
USC and Cedric Ogbuehi from Alabama very tempting. However, Pittsburgh's
once-vaunted defense has taken some steps backwards in the past few seasons and
isn’t getting any younger. The Steelers struggled to consistently get to
the quarterback and force turnovers, which were staples of the Steelers D in
their recent Super Bowl seasons. There are no players that easily fit
Pittsburgh's 3-4 defense, except for Notre Dame's Louis Nix. I'm not sold
on Nix at this spot and feel the Steelers' are better served (and safer)
picking a DB. This leaves a choice between S Ha Ha Clinton-Dix and CB
Darqueze Dennard, and I've already expressed my feelings on top 15 safety
picks. Dennard was the Thorpe winner as the best college DB in college
football in 2013 and was a large reason that MSU's defense was one of the top,
if not the top, defenses in the country. Choosing Dennard gives the
Steelers a player opposite Ike Taylor who will play with the physicality and
fluid playmaking skills that we have come to expect from Pittsburgh defensive
backs.
16. Baltimore – Marqise Lee, WR, USC
The Baltimore Ravens defense continued to be a strength for
John Harbaugh this season, but the offense fell off the pace. As a
result, the defending Super Bowl champions were never really contenders in
defending their title. The running game never got going this season, but
they still have talented backs in Bernard Pierce and Ray Rice, so the solution
would be solving the offensive line, correct? Maybe not, as the line is
littered with talented players between the ages of 26-29. If the Ravens
decide not to resign Michael Oher after his inconsistent season, then Taylor
Lewan looks like a no-brainer. Assuming they do though, as we are in this
mock, the question then lies where the offense is struggling. With Dennis
Pitta out with injury and Anquan Bolden gone to San Francisco, the passing game
struggled early and often, leading to packed boxes for the running game to
battle through. That looks like the issue for Baltimore and what better
way to solve that than with the last of the remaining number one WRs on the
board. Marqise Lee will step in and provide a weapon across from Torrey Smith
to open up Torrey's deep routes, while also forcing the defenses to be more
cognizant of the passing game for the Ravens. Adding a weapon of that
caliber for the use of the big arm of Joe Flacco should bring that Ravens
offense back to the standard it set last year for its Super Bowl win, and that
is really all you can ask out of a mid-first-round pick.
17. Dallas – Kony Ealy, DE, Missouri
The 2013 Dallas Cowboys were very similar to the Bears-the
offense was not to blame for another year of missing the playoffs.
Although many want to blame Tony Romo for the Cowboys problem, the
defense was the true scapegoat for the team's struggles. Jerry Jones has
done a nice job rebuilding the offense line, and Dallas in not lacking for
skill players. Instead, the defense suffered from numerous injuries and a
switch in schemes. Monte Kiffin is gone, and it's unclear if the Cowboys
will return to the 3-4, or stay with the 4-3. Dallas will look to add a
player in their front seven, which is aging and needs to be built around LB
Sean Lee. DT is the most glaring need, and I see two great options: Louis
Nix from Notre Dame for the 3-4, and Ra'Shede Hageman from Minnesota for the
4-3. Because the defensive scheme is still up in the air, the Cowboys
will take an impact DE instead. The top two on the board are Missouri's
Kony Ealy and Notre Dame's Stephon Tuitt. Both guys have a high level of
quickness and athleticism, and are bound to wow at the scouting combine.
Ealy has the better upside in my opinion, and Tuitt isn't a safe enough
pick to push him ahead of Ealy's potential. He is an explosive playmaker
who has a good combination of pass rush and run stop abilities. He will be a
great way to add pass rush alongside DeMarcus Ware, thanks to his experience
working with good rushers, having teamed with Michael Sam to make Missouri's
D-line one of the most feared in the country.
18. New York Jets – Ha Ha Clinton-Dix, S,
Alabama
The New York Jets have a lot of needs. There was no one
player that seemed a perfect pick for the Jets. The most talented players left
on the board are Louis Nix III, Stephon Tuitt, and Taylor Lewan. The Jets
have talented players under the age of 25 at Nix and Tuitt's positions, and
three talented tackles on the roster already. So instead, the Jets reach
into the muck to pull out the pick that best fits their team needs. The
two biggest needs are at OLB and WR, but there are no WRs I would reach for at
this point and Vic Beasley seems a reach at 18 (though he has the potential to
be great in Rex Ryan's 3-4). The Jets need a guard, but can you justify
reaching for someone like Cyril Richardson when there are so many tackles left
on the board? I have to believe that will boost the value of guards in the second
round and make waiting the more viable option. Instead, we are left with
two choices: Ha Ha Clinton-Dix to step in at safety for a team that picked up a
suddenly very old Ed Reed midseason and started him the rest of the way, or
Jace Amaro to provide a safety valve for Geno and a passing game threat to open
up the running game a little more? Both seem like strong options for this Jets
team, but in the end, I can't justify taking the #2 ranked TE at 18, when the
#1 safety is available. Ha Ha will immediately start for Rex Ryan and the
Jets defense will be close to becoming that very scary defense once more under
Ryan.
19. Miami – Taylor Lewan, OT, Michigan
The Dolphins offensive line, which was at one time
promising, was blown apart by the Richie Incognito fiasco, costing them both
Incognito and Jonathan Martin. This was a year after Jake Long took his
skill and leadership to St. Louis. The chaos led to Miami yielding the
most sacks in 2013 by a wide margin, with that inability to keep Ryan Tannehill
upright costing them the playoffs down the stretch. There are three
offensive tackles that the Fish could take at this spot-Michigan's Taylor
Lewan, Alabama's Cyrus Kouandijo, and Notre Dame’s Zach Martin. Martin is
just a step lower than the other two, and Kouandijo is a rawer player than
Lewan, who has started at Michigan since his freshman year. Although
Kouandijo may have the better metrics and a higher ceiling, the Dolphins will
take Lewan, who they can plug in immediately at either tackle spot. Lewan
has great strength and is an excellent all-around blocker, even though
Michigan's dismal offense would suggest otherwise. He has showed a bit of a
mean streak, especially in 2013, which is an advantage as long as he stays
disciplined. Miami can expect a similar Michigan OT that they took in
Long in 2008. Michigan's poor season probably cost Lewan some draft spots, but
the Dolphins will get a smart, aggressive tackle that will help from day
1.
20. Arizona – Cyrus Kouandijo, OT, Alabama
The Cardinals are devastated that the local kid was drafted
one pick before them. Still, with so many first round grade tackles left
on the board, they get one nice consolation prize in Kouandijo. As Kevin
pointed out, he is rather raw, but the measurables are there, and with Jonathan
Cooper returning from injury next season and this pick, the Cardinals go from
terrible offensive line two years ago to mediocre offensive line this past year
to pretty damn good offensive line next season. For a team that nearly
made the playoffs behind one of the most dynamic defenses in the league, the
addition of a strong offensive line to protect an even older Carson Palmer and
pave the road for the explosive Andre Ellington is too enticing to pass up.
This Cardinals team could make that jump to playoff team from an already
stacked NFC West behind their revamped offensive line.
21. Green Bay – Louis Nix III, DT, Notre Dame
Despite QB Aaron Rodgers going down midseason to a collarbone
injury, the Packers managed to find their way into the playoffs (thanks to some
awful play down the stretch by their NFC North rivals). Their issues
exist almost entirely on defense. Green Bay finally found a running back
in Eddie Lacy and has a nice corps of receivers. Their offensive line
should get a boost with the return of a few injured players, including tackle
Bryan Bulaga. They could use a tight end to provide insurance for
Jermichael Finley, who suffered a gruesome injury in 2013, but Eric Ebron is
already off the board, and the other TEs are a bit of a reach at this point.
On defense, the Packers run a 3-4 that relies on a number of blitz packages and
a large NT. B.J. Raji, the current nose tackle, is a free agent and could
demand a large contract. To provide a solid backup plan, the Packers take
Louis Nix, the large defensive tackle for Notre Dame. Nix has the body to
play the position in the NFL and has surprising quickness that can get him
through blocks and into the backfield. He has the ability to occupy two
blockers and keep the Packers' dynamic linebackers free to get to the QB or
stop the run. Even if Raji does return, Green Bay will enter 2014 with
excellent depth at NT. The Packers could also use a safety, but
Clinton-Dix was taken and no other safety had the skill to bypass the selection
of Nix.
22. Philadelphia – Vic Beasley, OLB/DE, Clemson
Chip Kelly's first season in Philly can only be described as
a success, as he took the Eagles to the NFC East title and proved that his offense
can work in the NFL. Unfortunately, as good as the offense was at times,
the defense just couldn't hold up its part of the bargain and the
Eagles were bounced in the first round of the playoffs. The Eagles run a
3-4 that has a strong defensive line to anchor it, but the outside linebackers
are merely solid tacklers. They don't make mistakes but they also provide zero
pressure on the quarterback, something the OLB in the 3-4 MUST be able to
do. The secondary isn't much better, as the safeties don't inspire any
prose from me and the cornerbacks were burned all year long, resulting in the
most passing yards against per game in the NFL. There are no safeties
worth reaching for at this point, so the only secondary help available is at
cornerback. The top two options at corner are both from the
University of Florida, Marcus Roberson and Loucheiz Purifoy. Those two
are very similar players who can provide solid corner play going forward, but I
don't see either of them having the ceiling of a shutdown corner. In
contrast to the cornerback, Vic Beasley is a rawer version of Anthony Barr, an
enormously talented OLB who could become a force in the 3-4 for the Eagles,
easily having the ceiling of Pro Bowler or higher. While fixing the
secondary could be tempting, adding a talent like Beasley to learn for a year
while providing brief moments of greatness each game (similar to Jarvis Jones
in Pittsburgh this season) is too much to pass up, especially for someone who
loves athletes on his team as much as Chip Kelly does.
23. Kansas City – Kelvin Benjamin, WR, Florida
State
Kansas City was the surprise team of 2013, going from worst
to a playoff team and the last team to lose last season. The Chiefs
paired a new coach, Andy Reid, with a new quarterback, Alex Smith, and then
threw in a talent defense that excelled at getting sacks and turnovers.
Their ultimate undoing was the inability to keep up with explosive
offenses and injuries, which caused them to blow a 28 point lead in the AFC
Wildcard round. KC does not have issues with the offensive line, after
spending the number one overall pick last season on Eric Fisher, or at running
back, as Jamaal Charles put up Pro Bowl numbers this season. The Chiefs
struggled at the receiver position and have no real option opposite of Dwayne
Bowe, who himself had a mediocre season. There are a ton of options at WR
in this draft, and the Chiefs would be wise to grab one with their first pick.
They will look at Allen Robinson (Penn St.), Odell Beckham, Jr. and
Jarvis Landry (LSU), and Jordan Matthews (Vanderbilt). However, Kansas City
will pass on all of them and take Kelvin Benjamin, the tall, dynamic receiver
from Florida State. Benjamin is a young WR who was Heisman winner Jameis
Winston's favorite target and caught the game winning TD in the National
Championship. Benjamin has the ability to go up and get the ball, and
enough speed to open up the field for Bowe. His size (6'5", 235 lbs)
will create a lot of mismatches and give Smith a great red zone target.
24. Cincinnati – Loucheiz Purifoy, CB, Florida
Cincinnati entered the playoffs as one of the hottest teams
in the NFL and some people's pick as the AFC's Super Bowl representative.
You don't get to that point with many holes on your team. The
offense was great this season, as Jay Gruden utilized Andy Dalton and his many
weapons to create a near unstoppable offense at times. He also used that
to get himself a head coaching gig in Washington. That's the only fault I
see with this offense, the lack of a coordinator, and you can't fix that in the
draft. So we move to the other side of the ball, where James Harrison
inexplicably still has a job and the secondary looks like a Dallas Cowboys
reunion special. The goal for the Bengals should be to find a replacement
for Harrison or some youth to develop alongside Dre Kirkpatrick for the
inevitable decline of Pacman Jones, Terrence Newman, and Leon Hall that is
around the corner. While Harrison's replacement is the more pressing
need, Trent Murphy and Ryan Shazier are the options there and neither scream
first round pick to me. On the flip side, the Florida DBs I spoke about
with the Eagles pick do have a higher floor and can step in immediately if the
three old guys above struggle next season. Once again, it's a coin toss
between the two, but I personally prefer the more athletic Purifoy, so the
Bengals take Loucheiz and have enough corners now that Pacman doesn't need to
see the field outside of returning kicks.
25. San Diego – Marcus Roberson, CB, Florida
The Chargers used last year's draft to address some big
needs on offense, grabbing OT DJ Fluker and WR Keenan Allen, both of whom
helped turn San Diego's offense into a productive unit and give Phillip Rivers
a small resurgence. They could probably use an interior lineman, but I'm
never a fan of grabbing one in the first round unless someone really stands
out. Turning to the defensive side, the Chargers really struggled against
the pass, and going against Peyton Manning three times in 2013 did not help.
Two positions could help here-a blitzing OLB to work in their 3-4 attack,
or a corner to replace their aging defensive backfield. Although a guy
like DE Stephon Tuitt is tempting, the Bolts will grab a cornerback with their
first pick. The top options are Florida's Marcus Roberson or TCU's Jason
Verrett. Roberson has some size on Verrett (6'0" compared to
5'10"). Verrett is regarded as a very good cover corner with the
ability to blanket guys down the field, but can struggled on jamming receivers
due to his size. Because he has a good balance and the size to play a
more physical corner, the Chargers will take Roberson, making it two straight
Florida corners taken.
26. Cleveland (from Indianapolis) – Derek Carr,
QB, Fresno State
Most of the time in the NFL draft, you have to determine the
value of taking a guy when your next pick is 32 picks away. The Browns
have the luxury of twice making picks on day one where they can pick for talent
with the knowledge that shortly thereafter they will get another shot at
plugging in a hole. With the number four pick, we gave Cleveland a stud
OLB to plug into their 3-4. This time around, we add to their offense.
The goal for this pick and the next is to grab a quarterback and either a
RB or WR. How we achieve that end is where the strategy comes into play.
The targets for the Browns at this point are Derek Carr and AJ McCarron
at QB, Carlos Hyde, Ka'Deem Carey, and De'Anthony Thomas at RB, or Allen
Robinson, Odell Beckham, Jr., Jarvis Landry, and Jordan Matthews at WR.
With only nine picks separating their late first and early second round
pick and lots of lineman still on the board, the Browns are guaranteed of
getting two of those listed players. The question is can they get the top
two listed on their board? In my world, that top two listing would be
Derek Carr and Carlos Hyde, but I could easily be talked into McCarron, Carey,
Robinson or Beckham Jr cracking the top two as well. While there is only
one team in that nine pick range in need of a quarterback (Jacksonville), there
are plenty of teams right behind that who could be itching to move up and snag
one of those two quarterbacks. To avoid that plight, the Browns take
their quarterback now, Derek Carr. Carr gets the choice over McCarron
because I like his arm better throwing to Josh Gordon and Jordan Cameron in the
nasty AFC North weather, compared to AJ McCarron and his excellent game manager
ability but lacking arm.
27. New Orleans – Allen Robinson, WR, Penn
State
Upon the return of Sean Payton, the Saints returned to their
winning ways, and this time with a revived defense under the control of Rob
Ryan. The defense ranked fourth in yardage per game and points per game.
For the first time, it was the New Orleans offense that let them down in
the big moments. Despite the reported offensive wizardry of Payton and
Drew Brees, the Saints found themselves getting shutdown against teams like the
Seahawks and the Panthers. Although they have one of the biggest matchup
nightmares in Jimmy Graham, teams have found that by singly shutting him down,
the Saints' offense goes downhill quickly. Top receiver Marques Colston
is aging and isn't good enough by himself to drawn defenders off of Graham.
We've highlighted the WR depth in this draft and listed out the names
that will be looked at in the first 2 rounds. Due to his all-around game,
the Saints take Allen Robinson, who was the top receiver in the Big Ten.
Robinson has good size and leaping ability, showing that he could
overcome the frequent double team at PSU. He's not going to wow you with
speed, but has the possession skills that can give Brees an extra target.
A shot of rejuvenation for the receiving corps will help the Saints from
being shut down by the good defenses next season.
28. Carolina – Zach Martin, OT, Notre Dame
Best player on the board
or draft for need? This is the question that is at the heart of most draft
debates, and for the Panthers in this mock, a tough question to answer.
The Panthers have created a monster defense through the draft the past
few seasons, but Greg Hardy could be leaving this offseason, making Stephon
Tuitt a no-brainer. But, following our rule of assuming everyone returns,
DE isn't a need, therefore Tuitt would be a luxury pick for a team with actual
needs. Those needs all pertain to their franchise star, Cam Newton: give Cam
better protection and give him better weapons in the receiving game. To
solve the first need, Morgan Moses or Zach Martin can provide a talented young
player to replace Jordan Gross in the next season or two at LT while stepping
in at RT in the short term. While Moses has the more prototypical body
for parting the seas for his QB and RBs, Zach Martin is the safer pick for a
team that can't afford to miss on a first round pick if they intend to stay a
playoff team in an über-strong NFC. The second need has a few more
options, but the Panthers need more of a go-to wide receiver than an explosive
wide out, and that makes Jordan Matthews the choice over Beckham and Landry.
So who do Riverboat Ron and the Cats go with: Tuitt, the most talented
player; Martin, the safe franchise protection; or Matthews, Cam's new favorite
toy? At the end of the day, you protect the franchise every time.
29. New England – Jace Amaro, TE, Texas Tech
In the matter of one season, New England has gone from
terrifying at the tight end position to scraping the bottom of the barrel for
production. Rob Gronkowski can't seem to stay healthy and Aaron Hernandez
can't seem to stop shooting people (ED: *rimshot*). Even Tom Brady, who
took a ragtag group of wide receivers to the AFC Championship game, couldn't
make guys like Michael Hoomanawanui and Matt Mulligan look just
mediocre. Bill Belichick and the Patriots' front office always do a great
job of building their depth in the draft's later round, so they can afford to
get a position of need in the first round. With Eric Ebron off the board,
the top TE's are Texas Tech's Jace Amaro, Washington's Austin Seferian-Jenkins,
Notre Dame's Troy Niklas, and Iowa's C.J. Fiedorowicz. Niklas and
Fiedorowicz don't have first round talent, and Seferian-Jenkins doesn't have
quite the ceiling of Amaro. The Texas Tech TE is a big body (6'6",
260) who set the all-time receiving record in D-1 football during Tech's
Holiday Bowl victory. Amaro combines size and speed to become the
dangerous pass-catching tight end that is still causing matchup issues in the
NFL. There is some concern with some character issues, which New England
is defintely sensitive to. However, adding Amaro gives Brady an immediate
big target (he had 10 games with 8+ catches in 2013) and could lead to another
dominant duo once Gronk returns from his knee injury.
30. San Francisco – Stephon Tuitt, DE, Notre
Dame
The 49ers and Seattle Seahawks are the class of the NFC for
a reason, as neither have many holes and continue to build around their young
signal-callers and staunch defenses. For the 49ers, their two areas of
need are a deep threat wide receiver to compliment Michael Crabtree, Anquan
Bolden, and Vernon Davis; and a DE to backup and eventually replace Justin
Smith and Ray McDonald, who are going on 34 and 30 years of age,
respectively. Odell Beckham is a legitimate deep threat and would be a
great fit in this offense. Yet, in this mock, he's not even a
consideration, as the best player remaining, by far, is Stephon Tuitt, a
6'6", 330 lb DE out of Notre Dame. Tuitt will fit perfectly in the
49ers 3-4, with the size to open up gaps for the linebackers, but also
equipped with the skill to shoot upfield and make plays himself. The
49ers are jumping for joy and already look like a lock to be Super Bowl
contenders again next season with this selection.
31. Denver – Antonio Richardson, OT, Tennessee
The Broncos' offense was on another level in 2013.
Denver scored 10 points per game more than the next highest total and made
their defense borderline irrelevant for most of the season. Peyton
Manning put in one of the best statistical years of any quarterback in NFL
history, and was able to throw to four top-notch targets. Denver also got
a great contribution from RB Knowshon Moreno, and their offensive line, even
without LT Ryan Clady, played well. With that said, the protection of
Manning is the top objective for Denver's front office for as long as he is
with Denver-he is one big hit from ending his career. The Broncos could
use help along both their lines. Virginia's Morgan Moses and
Tennessee's Antonio Richardson are the best OT's left on the board, while
Oregon State's Scott Crichton is the best option on the defensive line.
Since protection of Manning is priority number one, the Broncos will take an
offensive tackle to add depth to the line. Moses may be the player that is
more ready to play now, but Richardson has the higher ceiling and can settle in
at RT opposite of Clady, giving the Broncos options to move guys around on the
line. Richardson has dealt with the top rushers of the SEC over his
college career and has the traits to become a solid NFL tackle.
32. Seattle – Austin Seferian-Jenkins, TE,
Washington
The Seahawks have a staunch defense that can always use some
depth due to the large number of players suspended recently for PEDs.
Yet, our rules have us assuming all players on the roster will return, which
means Seattle has the best defense in the league, with more depth than anyone
else. So we will look to draft on the offensive side of the ball, where
there are a few needs for the best team in the league. First, the team is
in need of playmakers in the passing game, where Doug Baldwin and Percy Harvin
have not provided much behind Golden Tate, and while Zach Miller is a decent
tight end, he’s nothing special. The top options available to fill
this need are Jordan Matthews, Odell Beckham, and Austin Seferian-Jenkins: a
possession receiver, a deep threat, and an athletic tight end. Second,
the team could use an upgrade at RT where Breno Giacomini has provided
up-and-down play. The top option available is Morgan Moses, the raw
tackle out of Virginia. This is a tough decision, as all four players
could provide support and each have a lot of pros, but some flaws that must be
acknowledged. Do the Hawks select the RT who can strengthen the line, but
might not be ready to start immediately in Seattle? Do they select the WR from
Vandy who has the potential to be an Anquan Bolden clone, but might not have
the speed to ever become a game changer? Do they select the WR from LSU who has
game-breaking ability, but also might be too small to survive in the NFL? Or
the tight end, from the local school, who is already a star in the area, but
might never be much better than Zach Miller? Usually, I go with the lines
when the decision is close, but the upgrade from Giacomini to Moses isn't a
guarantee boon, while Seferian-Jenkins can provide both an upgrade on the field
and a ready-made jersey-seller to the 12th man in Seattle.
And that's a wrap for version 1.0 of our mock draft. Kage and I will discuss this on our next podcast and will do a version 2.0 closer to the draft in May. Thanks for reading, hope you enjoyed it!
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