Friday, December 7, 2012

Way Too Early Mock Draft

So I was bored at work, tired of studying for this evidence final I'm taking tomorrow, so I decided to take a stab at a NFL mock draft.  What follows is guaranteed to change between now and April, but it's always fun to dream of what players could make your team better while they are blowing another season due to poor coaching, defensive starters plagued by injuries and a terrible offensive line (or is that just me?).  Anyways, without further ado, my mock draft!

1.      Kansas City – Manti Te’o, MLB: When I first started this a week ago, I passed on Te'o because I liked the young MLB the Chiefs had in Jovan Belcher.  Unfortunately, that has changed and if ever a team was in need of an emotional leader and someone who knows how to deal with tragedy, it's Kansas City.  Te'o fills the hole left by Belcher and gives them a spiritual leader on their defense.
2.      Jacksonville – Damontre Moore, DE : Jacksonville's defense is much weaker than their offense.  Chad Henne has proven that the offense is able to produce when the quarterback position is manned by a competent signal-caller, so I see the Jags going defense.  In this case, I take the most versatile DL available in Moore and hope that Babin and him can create a strong pass rush to help the rest of the defense.
3.      Philadelphia – Luke Joeckel, OT: Philadelphia needs offensive linemen if they are moving away from Vick to another quarterback.  Here they can take Joeckel and be set at left tackle for the next decade. Not too shabby for a team that isn't too far removed from a playoff appearance and still pretty talented.
4.      Oakland – Jarvis Jones, OLB: Originally, I was all set to put Mingo here and give the Raiders a strong DE to line up on the outside of two pretty good defensive tackles.  After thinking about it though, there is no way Jarvis Jones drops out of the top four, especially when the team at four is a team known for valuing athletes.  Jones will not drop past Oakland.
5.      Carolina – Star Lotulelei, DT: A terrible running defense, meet your new Star.  Lotulelei drops further than he should have as well, but Carolina won't pass on him at five.
6.      Arizona – Chance Warmack, OG: The worst offensive line BY FAR takes the best remaining offensive lineman, even if he is a guard.  Warmack will instantly upgrade the Cards line.
7.      Buffalo – Johnathan Hankins, DT: Buffalo gets killed by the run, which negates any use Mario Williams provides, as teams don't need to pass.  Here the Bills get the next best tackle behind Lotulelei in big Mr Hankins from Ohio State and instantly upgrade their defense.
8.      Cleveland – Barkevious Mingo, DE: While I could see Mingo going as high as four to Oakland, the Browns and their fans just need talent on the defensive side.  Mingo is the most talented remaining defensive player in my opinion, so Barkevious goes to the fan base most famed for barking in the Dawg Pound.
9.      Detroit – Dee Milliner, CB: An offense that can score with the best of the them, but a defense that can't stop teams, especially when they are passing in the final minutes of games.  Best way to upgrade that two minute defense: add Dee Milliner to the secondary.  The Cowboys did this with Mo Claiborne.  I expect similar results in the Motor City.
10.  Tennessee – Bjoern Werner, DE: Growing up, the early-2000s Titans always had a strong pass rush and made deep playoff runs on defenses led by the rush.  By adding Werner (my personal favorite DE in this draft), the Titans add a great end who immediately makes their defense more feared by offenses around the league.
11.  San Diego – Johnathan Jenkins, DT: The Chargers are firing their coach and general manager, so they could have completely different needs come April.  If they move away from the 3-4, I doubt they take Jenkins, but assuming they stick with the 3-4, Jenkins is a great NT to put next to Liuget on that defensive line.
12.  New Orleans – Sylvester Williams, DT: They need defensive help everywhere, he's the best defender available. No more explanation needed.
13.  St Louis – Taylor Lewan, OT: The Rams have two picks and need to upgrade an offense that should be better with Bradford and Jackson in the backfield.  I have them adding one lineman and one skill player, so with all the value this early in the draft along the lines, the Rams take the best offensive lineman on the board and put Lewan out left to watch Bradford's blind side.
14.  Minnesota – Dion Jordan, DE: The Vikings upgraded their offensive line and there is no value to upgrade at WR, so instead, they grab a physical monster who can step onto an aging defensive line and provide depth to Brian Robison and Jared Allen.  It won't hurt to have him learn a thing or two from Allen either!
15.  Miami – Kenny Vaccaro, S: The Dolphins are surprisingly talented, as I was blown away by the lack of major holes in this team.  One area that did pop out to me was a weak secondary and a skilled playmaker like Vaccaro can really upgrade a secondary in a heartbeat.
16.  Dallas – Jonathan Cooper, OG: Worst offensive line in my memory that the Cowboys have ever put on the field.  With Tyron Smith and Doug Free at the tackles, the Cowboys aren't terrible, but the interior is just a mess.  Cooper will start from day one (hopefully ending the reign of terror Mackenzy Bernadeau has lorded over my life these past few months) and the Cowboys skill positions will thrive as a result.
17.  Tampa Bay – Sam Montgomery, DE: A strong showing in Schiano's first season, thanks in large part to the great first draft he had.  In a division that stars Cam Newton, Matt Ryan, and Drew Brees, you can never have enough pass rush and Sam Montgomery is too good to let drop any further.  Tampa Bay snaps up the other LSU end and looks well on their way to another strong draft.
18.  New York Giants – Eric Fisher, OT: An aging offensive line will sooner or later start to falter, and New York can't afford to have their "star" Manning play behind a porous o-line.  Eric Fisher would provide depth on the line in case of injury and eventually protect Eli's backside.
19.  New York Jets – Ezekiel Ansah, DE: A raw physical beast, he will provide the infusion of talent the Jets need on their pass rush.  Add in Rex Ryan teaching a raw young defensive player the ins and outs of his pressure defense and this pick could end up being one we look back at and wonder how he ever dropped so far.
20.  Cincinnati Bengals – Alec Ogletree, LB: I called in the big guns for this one and got the pick/analysis from my friend Kyle, a big Bengals fan: "Bengals linebackers are one of the weaker groups as a whole. Howard will be coming off an ACL injury at WILL, Maualuga is going to be a FA
and not worth what he will be asking for, in my opinion, Lawson is aging and terrible on pass coverage and Burfict is playing SAM right now. None of the linebackers we have playing now can cover beyond 15 yards, which is why TEs kill us every week. I drool watching Ogletree play because
he's an instinctual linebacker that has a nose for the football.  Draft him, then they could move Burfict to the middle or let Ogletree take it."
21.  St Louis (via Washington) – Justin Hunter, WR: St Louis strengthened the line with their first pick, now they add the more polished of the two Vol receivers to provide another weapon for Bradford to take the pressure off of Steven Jackson.  Justin Hunter has the ability to become scary good playing in that dome in St Louis.

NOTE: I have reached the point in the draft where I could conceivably see teams trade down to teams like Kansas City, Arizona, etc in search of quarterbacks.  All teams after this point would not surprise me if they traded down, picked up a few extra picks, and instead we saw Matt Barkley, Geno Smith, or Tyler Bray selected at that pick instead.

22.  Indianapolis – Corey Lemonier, DE: The Colts absolutely killed it this year with their draft.  Andrew Luck, Coby Fleener, T.Y. Hilton, Vick Ballard, and LaVon Brazill have all shown the capability to be quite the talented offense in Indy, and all have done as rookies! Now they need to flip to the other side of the ball, where I have them taking the best available defensive end.  Corey Lemonier showed great heart with Auburn this season and may start from day one, but I expect rookie contributions from him similar to this year's rookie class.

23.  Pittsburgh – Johnthan Banks, CB: While drafting a quarterback here is soooooo enticing (seriously, no more Charlie Batch!), Pittsburgh wins because they make the strongest team possible.  In that vein, I can't see them passing on the Thorpe Award winner, a 6'2" corner from Mississippi State who can help make that defense even more stout than it already is.
24.  Seattle – Keenan Allen, WR: Seattle really struck gold with Russell Wilson and now need to provide him with a few more weapons.  I'd like to see them trade Matt Flynn for another high draft pick, but this isn't a trade column.  Instead, I was stuck choosing between Allen and Patterson at WR and Eifert and Ertz at TE.  While another TE to go with Zach Miller would be nice, I believe that a polished weapon like Allen could push Golden Tate and Doug Baldwin to either develop or disappear, either of which is what you want in Seattle.
25.  Chicago – Dallas Thomas, OT: A second pick made with help from a friend (Kevin of CL Game Misconduct), who offered the following needs for Chicago: OL, OL, OL, TE.  Well then! As much as I wanted to put Tyler Eifert here and make the Notre Dame "fans" of the Chicago area happy, Dallas Thomas seemed like the more pressing need.
26.  San Francisco – Zach Ertz, TE: Vernon Davis is great, but adding a second tight end who can be more of a blocking threat would really turn this 49ers offense from good to scary with Kaepernick under center.  Add in the fact that Ertz played at Stanford under Harbaugh and knows Harbaugh's offense and this just seems like a match made in heaven.
27.  Baltimore – Sheldon Richardson, DT: The Ravens defense is getting older and Ray Lewis' injury this year should scare them silly.  I would love to add a linebacker to this team (a couple of B1G linebackers seem like good fits), but Richardson has dropped too far as is and Baltimore is known for taking the best talent, not just the best fit, so I expect them to jump on the defensive tackle from Mizzou.
28.  New England – Kawann Short, DT: Kawann Short had a disappointing season this year, like pretty much everyone else did in West Lafayette.  Even after such a poor season, I still see a player that could have been a top-5 pick, and New England is known for grabbing those players that nobody else thought was a first round talent.  Adding Short to the defensive line will continue to help the Patriots compete as they will start next season with a decade of 10 win seasons behind them.
29.  Green Bay – Tyler Eifert, TE: The Packers need offensive talent as always.  When Greg Jennings went down this season, it was more obvious than ever how shallow the depth is on the edges.  However, no wide receiver and definitely no running back in this draft would make as big an impact for this offense as Eifert would.  Jermichael Finley is good but inconsistent, so the addition of Eifert would provide another weapon for Rodgers, another offensive package (2 TE), and motivation to Finley to become a much more consistent performer.
30.  Denver – Anthony Barr, LB: The Broncos are looking as good as any team in the NFL this season, and they have Peyton Manning to thank for that.  I'm extremely tempted to put a quarterback here for Denver to develop under Peyton the next couple of seasons (Tyler Bray seems like such a great fit), but I feel like Denver would rather make every attempt to win now and as such, grab a player like Barr who could be an instant impact player.  While he may not play every down, putting him opposite Von Miller on passing downs would be downright scary.
31.  Atlanta – Tank Carradine, DE: Tank Carradine tore his ACL right at the end of Florida State's season and as a result, plummeted in the draft.  While there is a major risk in drafting him, there is also a major reward if he returns to form following this injury.  If he can return to his old self, the drafting team would get a top-10 talent nowhere near the top of the first round.  In my mind, there are only two teams that can take the risk and stash a player for a couple months as he makes his way back: Atlanta and Houston.  Atlanta picks first, so they take the shot and could be in for a huge reward.
32.  Houston – Cordarrelle Patterson, WR: The other Vols receiver, Patterson is the more raw, more potentially amazing talent.  Houston has a ton of weapons as is, but Andre Johnson has shown a propensity for injury and getting a talent such as Patterson to develop over the next couple of seasons could result in a season or two of seasoning before the Texans have their very own Isaac Bruce/Torry Holt or Cris Carter/Randy Moss situation.  Will Patterson be that great? No clue, but Houston has built a strong enough team that they can take the risk.

Saturday, November 24, 2012

The Game Reactions or How I Stopped Defending Al Borges and Want Him Fired

Loyal readers, I'm a very vocal sports fan.  I feel bad for anyone who has ever had to watch a game with me.  I spend the entire time pointing out this and that and getting very loud for both good plays and bad.  It's especially noticeable during Spurs games, Red Wings playoff games, and Michigan football rivalry games.  Today's game might rank as one of the all-time worst to have spent watching with me, I officially lost it during the second half, and it was all thanks to one man.
Ladies and gentlemen, the architect of the Michigan offense
Al Borges called a great first half of the Ohio State game.  He got the ball to the edge with Denard, he stretched the field with Devin throwing to Gallon and Roundtree, and he used a good mix of roll outs and play actions to get Devin into a groove.  The ball was moving, the points were accumulating and the defense was resting.  That is, in my book, all you can ask for from your offense.  Did they have a flawless first half? No, but it was a good playbook that was taking advantage of the Buckeyes' biggest weakness: open space tackling.

I've watched my fair share of Ohio State games this year, as some of my best friends from school are OSU fans.  Every Saturday, we get together and watch the Michigan and Ohio State games and all season long, Ohio State has struggled at tackling.  Purdue, Cal, and Indiana all stayed close in games they had no reason to be in because they got to the edge and the Buckeyes couldn't tackle.  Michigan State and Wisconsin lost close games because they refused to go outside, opting instead to rely on their shaky quarterbacks and runs up the gut.  The Michigan strategy in the first half played off the weakness I saw exploited by Indiana, Purdue, and Cal (three teams that went a combined 13-23 this season).  Three mediocre to terrible teams stuck with this undefeated Buckeye squad because of this weakness and here we were exploiting it.  At halftime, I was confident in our ability to win and just wanted the defense to tighten up a little.

Before I enter full-rant mode and call for the firing of Al Borges, let me just point out how utterly different his defensive counterpart has been for us.  Greg Mattison has transformed a terrible (and I mean, historically terrible) defense into a near juggernaut capable of shutting down anyone on any given day.  Take today's game as an example of Mattison's time here at Michigan.  Time and again, the Wolverines defense was put in a tough position in the second half.  After a first half where Ohio State was able to move the ball pretty well and scored 20 points, they easily could have folded and given up another 20+ points.  Instead, Mattison made some adjustments to the secondary, blitzed a little more often on third down (which truly caused havoc), and held Ohio State to only six points the final 30 minutes.  Mattison's adjustments and play-calling tightened up the defense and left the offense needing only to score six points in the second half to win.  Of course that did not happen and that is why I am writing this today.

Al Borges needs to be fired.  Show that man the door.  He has shown flashes of brilliance (see the Devin/Denard combo against Iowa, the play-calls against Notre Dame last season), but more times than not, I am left scratching my head at the completely illogical play-calling.  Today Stephen Hopkins missed block after block in the I-formation.  Rawls, Denard, and Smith all showed an inability to move the pile or bust a big run up the middle.  So WHY DID HE KEEP CALLING FOR RUNS UP THE GUT FROM THE I?!? The second half adjustments made no sense.  They were a reversion to Lloyd-ball.  Run, run, pass. Instead of bringing Denard in as a RB or WR, time and again, Denard was trotted out as a wildcat (only way to describe him because he presented no ability to pass, and thus instilled no fear as a quarterback).  Ohio State as a result would flood the box and have everybody pursue the ball.  How about once having Denard roll one way and have Funchess sneak back-door for a throwback on the flat?  How about once using Denard as a decoy?  Instead, the entire second half saw Denard take the snap and run right into the teeth of the Buckeyes defense.

Was that the worst of it? No and that's because his refusal to use Devin and Denard together led to a clearly flustered Gardner fall apart late in the game.  Where were the rollouts and short passes to get Devin into a groove again?  Instead, Devin was the designated cannon.  Great for the big play, but terrible for sustaining a drive.  Gardner looked out of sorts the entire second half, and I have to believe it was because he no longer was a quarterback.  He wasn't controlling the pace, moving the ball, and punishing the Buckeyes.  Instead, he'd get a chance on 1-2 plays every four downs to throw a deep out or post, then he'd return to the sideline to watch Denard run it right at Ohio State for no gain and now have to face another tough third down situation.  By time Devin was the full-time quarterback again, the offense was stagnant and Ohio State was buzzing on defense.  Why? Why did the offense from the first half (where Denard was in at QB 5 out of 12 snaps, which included three at quarterback when they were intending to run out the clock before he took it to the house) get mothballed?  I cannot determine any logical answer to this question and that is what is driving me crazy.

Could I have taken some time before writing this post? Yes.  Should I have? Probably.  As a result of not waiting, I probably sound like a raving lunatic, but I felt that I needed to get down in writing this feeling that is gnawing at me, burning a hole in my soul from the inside out.  What is it that is causing this breakdown of my football fan psyche, that is shredding the inside of my mind, rending it into tatters?  It finally dawned on me as that game ended.  Al Borges is supposed to be an offensive genius, a quarterback guru to led us into the promised land.  My dreams of Michigan football returning to any level of prominence relies on this man's ability to do what has been promised.  My hopes rely on a man whose second half game plan against a flawed defense reminded me all too much of Mike Debord and Terry Malone's Carr-era offenses.  This is the reason my football fan brain is in panic after that game, this is the reason I feel tattered and torn on the inside: a fear is growing larger, a fear that the Lloyd Carr offense I hated and despised has returned to my life and stomped out the last burning embers of hope I had of rooting for an intelligent, innovative offense at the University of Michigan.

Tuesday, October 16, 2012

The Tigers' 2012 Case of Heterochromia

Well well well, it's funny what can happen from the beginning of the season to the end.  Just take the Tigers as a prime example: preseason favorites to criminal underachievers to division champs to possible World Series champs?  All season long, the Tigers showed glimmers of hope and glimpses of despair.  Pitchers who were downright dominant (Verlander, blue eye Scherzer, second half Fister) and pitchers who were awfully hittable (Porcello, brown eye Scherzer, Valverde).  Hitters who were downright terrifying to face (Miguel "Triple Crown" Cabrera, Prince, AJax) and hitters who were downright pathetic in the batters box (Delmon, Boesch, Jhonny).  So when the playoffs started, I was left to wonder: which team would show up? The Blue Eyes or the Brown Eyes?
The dichotomy of the Tigers season is written in Max's eyes
With games one and two in Detroit for the Athletics series, I had a good feeling about the Tigers. They had a hop to their step that I hadn't seen most of the season.  The pitchers were hitting their spots.  The bottom of the lineup were getting timely hits.  The defense was actually looking like a defense (nothing sweeter than Lil' Miggy gunning Coco Crisp at the plate).  I had a good feeling, the Blue Eyes were playing well.
Beware these particular kitties
Back in the Bay Area, the Oakland Zoo houses five female tigers.  Five formerly ferocious felines now left to prowl their enclosure and dream of running wild and tearing apart those in their path.  Similarly, four miles away, the formerly ferocious Detroit Tigers of games one and two turned into a spayed and neutered version of itself as the A's bounced back to take games three and four.  A dread enveloped me as I watched those games. Once again, the Brown Eyed Tigers came out to play and the Tigers were reeling heading into a game five.  Luckily, we had the fiercest Tiger of them all, ready to pitch that game five: Justin Verlander.  JV saved the Tigers season, but I ain't lying when I say that heading into New York for games one and two of the ALCS, I had already accepted the fact that these Tigers were not anyhting to be feared, that they had turned into the team embodiment of brown eye Max Scherzer.
In Oakland, the Tigers had rolled over before JV fought back
So how do I feel now, that the Tigers are going back to Detroit with a 2-0 lead over the Yankees and Justin Verlander scheduled to pitch tonight in game three?  Terrified, nervous, uncertain.  Yes, these Tigers are pitching out of this world right now.  Yes, they are getting timely hits and even timelier defensive help.  Yes, deep in my heart and soul, I am confident of a Tigers championship being celebrated this season.  But with all of that being said, this Tigers team is a dichotomy, a team with a good side and a bad side, a blue eye and a brown eye, and at any moment, that coin could flip and the Tigers could revert to their lesser selves. So I keep telling myself: I will not get overly confident going forward and I will be ready for when that blue eye closes and the other eye decides to look my way.

I'm Back!

Hello all! I know I've been gone for way too long, but I plan to remedy that now! Over the next week, I will write about each of my teams and their respective leagues, really just vent a little, relive a little, and prognosticate a little too.  I hope that I can get back to a relatively normal writing schedule before I have to shut down for a little while this upcoming summer (preparing for the bar exam will take me away from y'all again. My apologies in advance). Without further ado, let's get this show (back) on the road!

Sunday, April 29, 2012

Another Month, Some More Thoughts

Another month has passed between posts, as I battle through law school finals.  So once again, my apologies for the lack of posts.  As usual, here's my thoughts on the various teams and leagues I follow:

Tigers: Yeah, the Tigers are struggling and we could start freaking out, calling for massive changes.  I don't think that's necessary this early on.  The offense is struggling, but we can't expect Miggy and Prince to struggle this mightily the entire season. Once they get on track, which they will, the rest of the offense will follow.  The starters have been terrible (outside of Smyly and JV) and that is, was and will be an area of concern.  I believe that Porcello is pitching better than he ever has, and the results will catch up with that; that Scherzer is Dr Jekyll and Mr Hyde and we just gootta live through those terrible outings; and that once Fister returns, the rotation will solidify and the team will go on a major run. With the weak division the Tigers inhabit, they can hover at .500 and still be solidly in the hunt, so no fears in the early going.

Wings: Nothing more frustrating than a series like we just saw.  The Wings easily could have been up 3-0 after the first three games, but instead, a couple garbage goals and a hot Rinne, and the Wings were down 2-1.  After that, the momentum was in the Preds corner and the Wings just couldn't switch it back in their favor. What makes this most disheartening is to see the road left for a Cup run in the West. The Wings would have had the Yotes for the third year running (a team whose number they have) and then either the Kings or Blues, both teams the Wings have had success against.  A few bounces our way and the Wings would have been the most talented and experienced team left in the West. Ugh, what could have been...

Spurs: I'm more excited for these playoffs than I have been in years.  This Spurs team runs 12 (!!!) deep, scores at will, has an MVP candidate in Tony Parker, has the veteran wiles of Stephen Jackson, Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobili, and Matt Bonner, and the youthful legs and exuberance of Gary Neal, Kawhi Leonard, Danny Green, DeJuan Blair, and Tiago Splitter.  Oh, did I forget that they also have Boris Diaw, James Anderson, and Patty Mills (the 13th man, who just went off to end the season).  The first round series is against a tough Jazz team, but the Spurs dominated them all season (the one loss was a last second loss without TD, Manu, and Tony playing).  I see the Spurs winning in 5, with one game where the Jazz feed off a great SLC crowd and wins late.  The second round will be either the Grizzlies or Lob City.  I know this is crazy talk, but I want Memphis. I want revenge for last season, I want to play the team that "was obviously better".  Yeah right! With a healthy Manu and Z-Bo not hitting every shot he takes, this series will be much different. Finally, GO SPURS GO!

Cowboys: I absolutely loved the Cowboys offseason.  They needed to strengthen their biggest weakness, the secondary. They did so by replacing Alan Ball, Abram Elam, and Terrence Newman with Brandon Carr, Brodney Pool, and Mo Claiborne.  That is such an amazing job by Jerry Jones, especially when you consider that the offense and rest of the D really stayed intact.  Next, they upgraded other areas, replacing Keith Brookings with Dan Conner, Jon Kitna with Kyle Orton, and Tony Fiammetta with Lawrence Vickers. None major, but all making the Cowboys a much stronger team overall.  I was disgusted with the Cowboys last season and couldn't care less for this upcoming season, but Jerry Jones is one of the best for a reason.  He went out and made the team a legitimate contender for the Giants and Eagles in the NFC East.  I'm as excited as I could ever be for the NFL in April.

Miscellaneous: Bryce Harper is a freaking stud. I watched most of that Nats/Dodgers game last night and it was amazing to me that he is only 19 years old...all this talk about fights and dirty play in the NHL is overblown and here is why: the first round saw multiple rivalries and whenever you have hated rivals facing each other in do-or-die in the playoffs, you will have fights, no matter how clean the teams usually are (see Suns/Spurs).  Second, this is the first season of the focus on head injuries.  The NHL is being overcautious with head injuries and as a result, more suspensions came that way as well.  My guess: we will see nothing else like it the rest of the playoffs, unless we get Rangers/Flyers next round...Finally, I watch pretty much every sport and have a team/participant that I root for in every sport. Ask a sport, and I'll tell you about it and my favorite.  But up until recently, UFC was just not my thing.  Enter Jon "Bones" Jones.  The UFC Light Heavyweight champion and youngest champ ever is a blast to watch, my favorite fighter since seeing him at UFC 94.  His style is right up my alley and keeps me entertained.  After this last fight against Rashad Evans, I truly believe that Jones will go down as one of the best fighters UFC has ever seen, along with Anderson Silva.  We truly are watching greatness right now in the UFC.

Wednesday, March 21, 2012

2012 MLB Predictions

As a Tigers fan, I've never had the ability to root for the great team. The great team of the 1980s was in the twilight of its time when I got into baseball and when it was put to rest, so were Tigers playoff hopes. I mean, the Tigers have had three playoff appearances in my lifetime, and one was the year I was born. The other two saw good Tigers teams win a playoff series or two before bowing out in poor form. This year, the Tigers are a legit contender and of course, Cabrera breaks his face during Spring Training...I don't think my heart can handle the expectations I am putting on this season (if they miss the playoffs, baseball is dead to me).

I won't go crazy in-depth and write out a novel, but here are my takes on each division

In the AL East, feel sorry for the Orioles as the other four teams are all playoff contenders with the new two wild card format. I see the Red Sox petering out and coming in at or just below .500, due to terrible pitching again. I see the Blue Jays making a run at 90 wins and Brett Lawrie becoming a household name. I see the Rays riding the best staff in the league to a wild card. I see the Yankees struggling early with the many new battery combinations, but getting hot and never looking back by June.

In the Central, it's the Tigers and really nothing else. The ChiSox are a mess and will miss having Buerhle to throw out their every fifth day. The Twins are relying on Mauer and Morneau to return from injury to past form, which, c'mon. The Indians went into the offseason needing offense and got Casey Kotchman. Sorry, that doesn't do it for me, they are a .5oo squad. The team that actually scares me in the Central is Kansas City. There offense will be scary good at times, Eric Hosmer will be an MVP candidate, but ultimately, their terrible rotation will be their downfall in 2012. Soon though, this Royals team will be a perennial thorn in the Tigers' side.

The AL West will be a two-horse race. Seattle has some good young offensive talent and some great arms on the way, but it's still a good two years away from being a cohesive contender. Oakland saw the writing on the wall, realized they weren't gonna compete with LA and Texas this year and instead loaded up on talent by trading Gio Gonzalez and Trevor Cahill. I love the move, as they will use this season to get all that talent acclimated to the bigs and should be ready to battle next year. Texas and Los Angeles are two goliaths, both capable of beating anybody and should be fun watching these two in a heavyweight battle all year for the division.

Out east in the senior league, I see the Mets losing close to 100 games and David Wright in another uniform soon. The Nationals contend, but the big story out of Washington will be the midseason call-up of uber-prospect Bryce Harper. The Phillies are the NL's most disappointing team and miss the playoffs for the first time since 2006 due to the sudden retirement of Chase Utley (BOLD prediction) and Ryan Howard's poor return from the blown Achilles. The Miami Marlins feed off their fans enthusiastic embrace of the new fish tank and unis, come together as a playoff team and makes me hate life as Ozzie Guillen is once again, in the spotlight. Finally, the Atlanta Braves dominate the second half thanks to the best young rotation in the NL and ride that wave to their first division title since 2005.

The NL Central boasts the worst team in the league, and honestly, it doesn't look even close. The Astros are going to break the 100 loss mark and end their run in the NL on a low note. The Cubs will continue their makeover under the new regime and struggle to avoid 90 losses, but will provide fans a glimpse at the future with the arrivals of Brett Jackson, Trey McNutt, and Anthony Rizzo at some point this season. The Brewers could easily win this division if the offense comes together, but I don't see it and see a .500 season instead. The Pirates end the longest streak of losing seasons in pro history and ride Andrew McCutchen to around 85 wins. The Reds play great all season, but lose a one-game playoff at home when they decide to go with new ace Mat Latos and his high fly-ball rate leads to a few too many D'Backs dingers. The defending champion Cardinals prove that they can do it without Pujols and win a surprisingly competitive Central.

Finally, we head out to the NL West. The Padres roll in with a last place finish, but they aren't terrible and the careers of Yonder Alonso and Casey Kelly get started very well, bringing hope for 2013. The Dodgers avoid the basement solely because a team with an MVP candidate and Cy Young winner can't lose that many, but the rest of the team needs to recapture their former abilities if this team wants to do any better than fourth. The Rockies ride a scary offense to 90 wins, but the young rotation falters down the stretch and costs them a wild card berth. The Diamondbacks take advantage of the falter, and sneak into the playoffs when Paul Goldschmidt, Jason Kubel, and Justin Upton all go long off Latos in the playoff game. Finally, the Giants finally have some sort of offense to trot out with their superior pitching and pull away to 100 wins and a division title.

Time for my predictions that will be held against me in 6 months when September rolls around and the Orioles and Cubs are the best teams in the league. The AL is very top heavy with only seven contenders for five spots in my mind. The NL, on the other hand, have about 11 teams capable of getting over 90 wins and grabbing a playoff spot, but with only 5 spots, it's anyone's guess who will do so.

Division Winners:
AL East: New York Yankees
AL Central: Detroit Tigers
AL West: Los Angeles Angels
AL Wildcards: Texas Rangers, Tampa Bay Rays

NL East: Atlanta Braves
NL Central: St Louis Cardinals
NL West: San Francisco Giants
NL Wildcards: Florida Marlins, Arizona Diamondbacks

Wildcard Round: Rays get revenge, D'Backs win another
Division Series: Yankees beat Rays, Tigers beat Angels; Giants beat D'Backs, Braves beat Cardinals
Championship Series: Tigers beat Yankees; Braves beat Giants
World Series: Tigers beat Braves for first World Series since 1984

(I'm a homer, deal with it)

I'm Back!

Apologies readers for my absence. This past month saw me take a trip to Indy and Ann Arbor, prepare for and subsequently take a midterm, and finally (and really the major reason for lack of writing), fight off a cold so brutal, that I'm sure this particular strain dragged itself straight out of hell. I'm still writing at Talk Sports/Drink Beer as well, so continue to check that out. Anyways, I thought I'd drop my thoughts on a few topics real quick for y'all.

NFL Offseason
Let's start with the major move: the Cowboys signing of Brandon Carr just took them to the next level. Oh and some guy named Manning signed in Denver, but we'll get back to that. The Cowboys foray into the free agent market has been great, upping the talent in the secondary and creating more flexibility come draft day. Now the Cowboys can afford to trade down and pick up an extra pick or two and not fear missing out on the top corners or safeties.
Now to that Manning signing. I like it for Denver, as they have a great defense that could make the playoffs in a mediocre AFC West with Tebow at QB. If Manning struggles, then you get essentially the same level of play at QB. If Manning returns to old Manning, now you are a Super Bowl contender. Win-win, and add in an extra win for Elway, who now can trade Tebow without fear of a riot at Mile High. The best landing place for Tebow: Jacksonville. It's the one place he can start at quarterback and replicate his Denver tenure (MJD running takes the pressure off Tebow to throw to win). And for Jacksonville, they need fans to show up bad before they are forced to become the Los Angeles Jaguars. Tebow puts fans in the seats, especially in Florida.
Finally, I love RGIII, so why did he have to go to the freaking Skins? I don't think I'll be able to handle it that first game when RGIII hits Boys-killer Santana Moss for a game-winning 90 yard bomb...and there goes all confidence I had in the Cowboys. That team will be the death of me.
NCAA Hockey and Basketball Tourneys
First, the basketball tournament. Michigan lost, yes, but really, this team was never a title contender in my mind, so losing in the first round to Ohio or the Sweet 16 to UNC really changes nothing. We still are seeing the loss of only two players, who talent-wise were never great, and replacing them with three top recruits (and the return of Horford from injury). I can't wait for next season to arrive! Quick note on the loss as well: I also can't be mad when Michigan saw Ohio's typically mediocre three point shooters hit everything they threw up and Michigan missed nearly a dozen layups. You miss gimmes, your opponent shoots above their capabilities, you lose. Basketball is simple...freaking layups...

The hockey tournament is what matters to me. Since I first started attending UM, I realized quickly that there is nothing better than college hockey, especially come tournament time. Unfortunately, the NCAA tournament being a one-and-done format equals chaos and heartbreak of an extreme level. This season will be no different and I just hope that for once, it's the Wolverines that come out on top. The hot teams entering the tournament are North Dakota and Boston College and luckily for Michigan, those two are on the opposite side of the bracket. A win over Cornell on Friday, followed by a win over the Denver/Ferris St winner and Michigan will be in the Frozen Four for the third time in five seasons, with a chance to finally break through and win that first title since 1998. My prediction: Michigan handles the defensive-oriented Cornell pretty easily (our D ain't too shabby themselves, so the offensive advantage should be the difference), then faces Denver. The Pioneers already beat the regular season champs of every other conference and will end Ferris's first tourney since 2003 quickly. I think Denver is good, but Hunwick will do what he did last season and refuse to allow the Wolverines to lose in his final season in net for Michigan. I see Michigan making the Frozen Four...now I'll just go find a corner to sit in and hate myself for jinxing them.
Spurs and Wings Playoff Races
In the NBA, the Spurs are playing so well (and doing so without Manu!), setting themselves up for yet another high playoff seed. I truly believe this team can make another run at a title, though I don't think they can beat everybody to do it. They need to avoid great interior teams (PLEASE no Grizzlies again) and avoid a hot-shooting team. Finally, the trade for Stephen Jackson has been knocked as a downgrade from RJ, but I don't understand that sentiment at all. Jackson has always been a better defender than RJ and it wasn't like Jefferson was shooting the lights out. Add in the fact that when Captain Jack heard that he was heading back to the Spurs, he was so excited, HE CRIED TEARS OF JOY! This is a man that has always talked about his love for the Spurs and plays with such intensity that I truly believe he's going to be an asset on and off the court for this playoff run.

For the Wings, I have one thought: injuries suck. The Wings have proven that they are one of the elite teams this season, but unfortunately, the injury bug hit the team and hit it hard the past month, costing the Wings the number one seed in the West and even worse, most likely home ice in the first round. The past month saw injuries take out nearly half the team at one point or another and currently has sidelined Lidstrom, Franzen, Kindl, Ericsson, Helm, Joey McDonald AND Jimmy Howard. Losing half your defense and both goalies all at once is bad luck on an all-new level. The Wings now are hoping Ty Conklin can get through waivers to be the emergency starter or they will be stuck with starting the Jordan Pearce era in Hockeytown during the final weeks of play. I believe this team can beat anybody, but my lord, do they need to get healthy quick or Lidstrom and Homer's most likely final season will end rather unceremoniously.

Sunday, February 26, 2012

Tourney Prediction Feb 26

The regular season is done in the ECAC, CCHA, and Atlantic Hockey, with the bottom teams kicking off the tournaments next week for each. Hockey East and the WCHA all have one more week of regular season hockey to set up their conference tournaments, but that's all fine and dandy because ladies and gentlemen, TOURNAMENT TIME is here BABY!!!

Here is this week's predicted tourney bracket, with two changes from the straight pairwise rankings. I swapped Merrimack with Denver to avoid a HE first round matchup but to still keep Merrimack out east. I then swapped Minnesota and Miami to put the Gophers in St Paul (where they are required to be as hosts). After that, it seems like attendance is as good as possible everywhere, as the eastern regionals are tough to make strong attendance-wise due to only 6 eastern-based teams making the tourney as of today.

East Regional (Bridgeport - 8,412)

4 Ferris St 15 Merrimack

5 BU 12 Northern Michigan

West Regional (St Paul - 18,064)

1 UMD 16 Air Force

7 Minnesota 9 Union

Midwest Regional (Green Bay - 8,709)

3 Michigan 14 North Dakota

6 UMass Lowell 11 Michigan St

Northeast Regional (Worcester - 12,239)

2 BC 13 Denver

8 Miami 10 Maine

Monday, February 20, 2012

Tourney Prediction Feb 20

With one week left in the regular season for a couple conferences, here's my latest NCAA Tourney prediction:

East Regional (Bridgeport - 8,412)

3 UMass Lowell 13 Ohio State

6 BU 12 Denver

West Regional (St Paul - 18,064)

2 Michigan 15 Cornell

8 Minnesota 10 Michigan St

Midwest Regional (Green Bay - 8,709)

4 Ferris St 14 North Dakota

5 UMD 11 Miami

Northeast Regional (Worcester - 12,239)

1 BC 16 Air Force

7 Union 9 Maine

Thursday, February 9, 2012

How to Make Our Hot Wings Better

The Wings are scary good right now, doing it all while Hank and Dats are struggling MIGHTILY. I wrote about this over at Talk Sports/Drink Beer, but I'll say it again, the Wings are a contender for the Cup this year. At the same time, I can honestly say, at this point in time, that there are no prohibitive favorites to win it all as there are a good amount of strong teams and it'll truly come down to who's playing at the top of their games come May.

On that note, that brings up the main point of this stream of thought: the Wings need to make a move or two at the deadline to increase their cushion to make errors, solidify those weak points in the lineup. After watching this team a lot the past few weeks, I've come to a few conclusions:
  • The power play is struggling not from the players on the PP, but the fact that those players are in a slump. The puck is still moving as crisply and cleanly as ever, and the Wings are getting their opportunities, they just don't have puck luck right now. With Mule connecting on the PP the last couple games, I truly believe all these calls for making a move for a player based on the PP is short-sighted.
  • Speaking of slumps, Dats, Hank and Franzen are the three best offensive players on the Wings, hands-down. They also were the three players struggling the most to find the net recently. The past six games, the Wings have scored 17 goals, eight of which have come from Jiri Hudler and Drew Miller. The next six are spread among such game-changers as Cory Emmerton, Danny Cleary, Todd Bertuzzi, and Valtteri Filppula. Out of those 17, only three come from the Big Three, and those goals came as two on the power play by Franzen and Hank's gift goal last night. This is the big area I believe the Wings need to solidify. While it's great right now, that's because Emmerton, Hudler and Miller are playing well. We can't rely on those boys carrying the offense.
  • Finally, I'm very impressed by the play of the defense this year. Lidstrom is proving once again why he's the Norris T-1136, a cyborg sent back to protect the Wings' Cup hopes from annihilation by Skynet...err, the Western Conference. His pairing with Ian White have played as good as any in the league this year, a strong statement considering they play in the same division as the vaunted Weber-Suter combo. The second pairing of Kronwall and Stuart has been strong all year and continues to provide a great second pairing to send out against a deep opponent. Finally, the pairing of Kindl and Ericsson scared the bejeezus out of me earlier this year, but now I honestly can breathe most of the time they are on the ice. The defense isn't a dire need to be fixed.
So what areas should the Wings address at the trade deadline? I think the Wings should go after a top-6 forward, someone who can take the pressure off the Big Three and give the Detroit offense a little cushion for error when the Big Three are slumping. Preferably, get somebody who can step into Homer's role on the top two lines and push Homer down to the third line. While that would be a great addition, it's a piece that isn't necessary and overpaying is not necessary, when the Wings are set up to go into this offseason with enough cap space to sign a replacement for Nick AND a forward. The necessary addition, in my opinion, would be a second pairing defenseman who can join the third pairing, for the inevitable time when Ericsson or Kindl implodes. This would make the defense that much stronger and should be much cheaper to acquire. I believe that this alone would be the key move of the deadline and a way for the Wings to make themselves as strong as possible.

In the end, if the Wings makes no moves at the deadline, I will not be greatly disappointed. While I believe a move is recommended, I don't believe it's necessary and should not be a reason for blame if the Wings flame out in the playoffs this season.

Monday, February 6, 2012

NCAA Hockey Tourney Prediction Feb 6

On the day that the most famous in-season tournament gets underway (the Beanpot), my first look at the end of the season tournament in two weeks presents some intriguing tourney match ups and regionals.

Northeast Regional (Worcester - 12,239)

1 BU 13 Michigan St

8 Merrimack 10 Notre Dame

West Regional (St Paul - 18,064)

2 Michigan 15 North Dakota

7 Minnesota 9 Maine

East Regional (Bridgeport - 8,412)

3 UMass Lowell 14 Northern Michigan

6 BC 11 Union

Midwest Regional (Green Bay - 8,709)

4 Ferris State 16 Air Force

5 UMD 12 Ohio State

Now the explanation for how I came to these regionals:

I began by putting the four one seeds in the regionals, with BU to Worcester, Michigan to St Paul, Lowell to Bridgeport and Ferris to Green Bay. I followed that with the two seeds, with the host school Minnesota going to St Paul, Duluth to Green Bay, BC to Bridgeport, and Merrimack to Worcester. Through the first two lines of seeds, the tournament is looking great, with all 8 schools as close to home as their seeding allows.

The next two lines were subsequently matched up and resulted in two interconference matchups: Ferris St-Michigan St and Merrimack-Maine, one on each line. The first solution is the easiest, as attendance issues were a non-factor in that decision. Maine couldn't be switched with Union (would just create another interconference matchup), so either way a western team was going east and an eastern team going west. The choice was to keep bracket integrity as close as possible, thus Notre Dame to Worcester and Maine to St Paul (it doesn't hurt sending Notre Dame to the Boston area, either).

The next was the tougher decision because trying to keep bracket integrity in this situation was near impossible. Moving MSU off the Ferris game had only one other option and that was swapping with the 16 seeded Air Force. Unfortunately that means the top team in the tourney gets stuck with the toughest four seed. The only other solution I could come up with was sending Northern to Worcester, MSU to Bridgeport, and Air Force to Green Bay. But does that make the bracket integrity better? I decided it did not, so instead I did solely a MSU/Air Force swap, and voila, there's this week's bracket.

Time to start getting excited folks, conference tournaments start in less than a month!