A Hearty Portion of What's Stewing on my Mind

Apologies for being away from the blog for the past three weeks, and apologies in advance for being away for the next three week, as the finals season of the law school life kicks into full gear and I become a recluse to the world. As a little something to relieve stress for myself and to provide a little light reading for y'all, here are a couple thoughts and predictions that have been floating around my noggin the past couple days.

• NFL Thoughts and Playoff Predictions

As a Cowboys fan from a family based in Michigan, Thanksgiving has always been a great family day for me as my entire family would sit together and watch their team and my team both play on Turkey Day. This year, I finally expected two good games for the first time since Barry roamed the ol' Silverdome. Unfortunately the games were meh and the storylines from the day were the Suh Stomp and Harbaugh Brother Bash. But this brings me to a big point I wanted to make: Best thing that could have happened for this Cowboys team was to get a win and be forgotten about, and that is exactly what happened. Now for the next ten days, while the Cowboys practice for the Cardinals, all the talk will be elsewhere. The Cowboys can work their asses off and set themselves up to be 8-4 going into that primetime match-up with the Giants and that's all they can ask for.

Now my playoff predictions with 5 weeks left in the season:
AFC:
1. Baltimore, 2. New England
6. Cincinnati @ 3. Denver
5. Pittsburgh @ 4. Houston

NFC: (this conference has a distinct mid-90s feel to it)
1. Green Bay, 2. San Francisco
6. Detroit @ 3. Dallas
5. Atlanta @ 4. New Orleans

• CFB Thoughts and BCS Predictions

This past Saturday, the Michigan Wolverines beat Ohio State for the first time in 8 years. After the game though, I was conflicted. Was I happy that we won? Yes. Was I ecstatic? No. And here is the reason why: that puts us at 1-7 the past 8 years. That's worse than John Cooper was, percentage-wise. So as great as it was to watch us win, it means nothing if we can't insure that this stays an annual possibility moving forward. In this regard, I truly hope that Brady Hoke and his staff look at the win and say, "not enough". I hope they look at the win and say, "Good stepping stone, now let's take another step and win a BCS bowl, and continue taking those steps to returning to Big Ten Champions next year, and finally bursting into a full out sprint towards our first undisputed national title since 1948" (bleeping Tom Osborne...but that's for another day). This is what I want, I don't want to hear any more talk, just results. And that is my wet blanket speech on this season (by the way, I predicted UM to go 10-2 before the season, so don't think I'm a pessimist). GO BLUE!

Now my BCS Bowl Predictions:
NC: LSU v Alabama
Sugar: Michigan v Houston
Orange: VaTech v Cincinnati (I'm sticking with my preseason prediction, Cincy QB woes be damned!)
Rose: Wisconsin v Oregon
Fiesta: Oklahoma v Stanford

• CL Thoughts and AC Milan Dream Scenarios

I went into this season hoping the Rossoneri could regain their former form on the continent and prove to everyone, once again, they are world beaters. Then the group draw put Milan in with Barcelona and I immediately became apprehensive, knowing that Messi and company could easily annihilate Milan if our boys in red and black gave up possession to easily and weren't stout in the back. Instead, Milan showed up and forced a draw at Camp Nou, then played Barcelona in the most fiercely fought match I've ever seen when the result didn't matter. While Milan did lose to Barca at San Siro, they showed to me as a fan that they are capable of going toe-to-toe with the Spanish giants. If my excitement was high entering this season, it's been increased exponentially with the recent play in Serie A and the aforementioned group play in CL. The attack has been stupendous, with Ibra looking as good as ever, Robinho playing great, Nocerino stepping into the old Gattuso role perfectly, and Abate, Aquilani, Pato, and others showing how much great youth ready and able to contribute the Rossoneri have accumulated as of recently. Finally, of all the players mentioned above, none have carved out a place in my heart quite as large as the crevice in which Kevin-Prince Boateng has settled into. My favorite player on this squad, his play this season both in Europe and Italy has been simply superb and he is just a joy to behold. I can honestly say KPB is number one in this blogger's heart. Now hopefully, Milan can continue their strong push towards the top of the table in Serie A and get a dream draw in CL.

AC Milan Dream Draw (this requires predictions for the final days of matches)

The Rossoneri will be in the unseeded pot after Barca claimed the top spot in their group. This means that Milan will be drawn against one of the top teams from the other groups. I see those 8 teams as being the following: Bayern Munich, Inter, ManU, Real Madrid, Bayer Leverkusen, Arsenal, APOEL, Barca. If those are the eight, then that leaves Milan with 6 possibile matchups (following the removal of Barca and Inter, due to fellow group member and fellow countrymate). From those six, I see three tiers of teams: yes please, oooo this should be interesting, and WHY DO WE ALWAYS GET SCREWED IN THE DRAW.

Under the yes please tier: APOEL and Bayer Leverkusen.
APOEL are the Cypriot minnows who are playing above themselves. Anybody who draws them will be cheering...please be us! Bayer Leverkusen are a German side who are playing good, but not great ball this year. They are 6th in the Bundesliga and only are going to get the top spot in their group because they didn't grab any draws while Chelsea/Valencia each had at least 2 and face each other in the final match. I would be fine with drawing them as well.

Under the oooo this should be interesting tier: Arsenal
This is one matchup that I think would be a blast, if only because of the Twitter war of letters Goddeeris and I would have rooting for our players in RVP and KPB, respectively. Also, this would be a blast because Arsenal is a team that I believe Milan could beat more times than not, but all matches would be close, hard fought matches filled with beautiful soccer.

Under the WHY DO WE ALWAYS GET SCREWED IN THE DRAW tier: ManU, Real, and Bayern Munich
Yeah yeah yeah, I know that I put half of the available teams under this category, but this is only because Milan was drawn against the top team in the world for the group stage, just to be turned around and drawn against the second best team in England and Spain or the best team in Germany this season (I know they are third in the table right now, but c'mon). So, if we get drawn against any of these three, I will immediately be expecting to continue our terrible run of being knocked out in the first knockout round of European competition that has persisted since winning the CL in 2007 (losses to Arsenal, Werder Bremen, ManU, and Tottenham).

In my dreams, we are lucky and get drawn against one of those first three to make for an easier road. If not, at least this team has shown me that I can have confidence they can go punch for punch with these heavyweights and maybe, just maybe, run a gauntlet of heavyweights to win our 19th international title. FORZA MILAN!!

The Future's So Bright, I Gotta Wear Shades

The first time I heard that song by Timbuk 3, it was while watching one of my favorite cheesy movies of the 1980's (My Best Friend is a Vampire). Why do I bring this song up? First, to make reference to a movie that I feel everybody should see at some point in their lives, and secondly, and more relevant to this blog, that is the song playing in my head right now whenever I think of Michigan athletics.

Basketball:

• 2011-2012 Thoughts: The basketball team has me so excited that I'm fondly remembering the last time I viewed the team this way, and I thought I would never fondly remember the 90's teams ever again. I grew up with the first teams I followed had rosters with such players as Maurice Taylor, Tractor Traylor, Louis Bullock, LaVell Blanchard. Big name players, big time expectations. Then, before I ever had a chance to truly get into Michigan basketball, it was all gone. Sanctions given, Steve Fisher fired, and years of talented but troubled or undeveloping players led by incompetent coaches led to the hiring of John Beilein to save the program. For the first time in years, I'm genuinely excited for a season. If Darius Morris had returned, this section right here would be predicting that Michigan would be a thorn in Ohio State's side and a legit contender in college basketball. As it stands, the 2011-12 team will once again make the tournament, this time behind the scoring of Timmay Jr, the tenacity of Novak, and the (hopefully) developed interior play of Morgan and Horford. I see a team that gets into the tourney with a middling seed.
  
• Why The Future's So Bright: So why would a middling seed team make me so giddy? Because this season is a foundation layer, a season in which the young players learn how to play Big Ten ball from Novak and Douglass, and gain experience in high pressure situations. This will be very important for next season, with the arrival of the most highly touted Michigan recruiting class of this millennium (yeah I went there). When Mitch McGary (#2 overall recruit in the country), Glenn Robinson III (Little Big Dog), and Nik Stauskas (The Man from Mississauga) step on campus next fall, the talent level of the Wolverines will finally be at the level to compete for the school's first national championship in 23 years. In fact, Beilein has the classes loaded with top 100 recruits for the next three years. It seems things are going great, and they're only getting better!
  

Hockey:

• 2011-2012 Thoughts: The moment the national championship game was over last season, I was devastated. I knew that that was our best chance to win a title, as that team was loaded with seniors. There was no way this season's team could make it that far when the roster was so heavy with freshman. My hope going into the season was to compete in the CCHA and keep the tournament streak alive. Eight games into this season, and my dreams have gone back to national titles. I am not saying this team is the best in the country, not by a long shot, but as we all know, college hockey come tournament time is as kooky and unpredictable as it comes. This year's edition of Wolverine hockey is much more potent offensively than the last few years, and is doing so with it's most talented player in Jon Merrill suspended for at least 12 games. And it also has probably one of the best, if not THE best, goaltenders in the country in Shawn Hunwick. This team may not win a title, hell, maybe not even a CCHA title, but it's strong enough to get my hopes up again.
  
• Why The Future's So Bright: This is yet another Michigan program that's not losing much after the season, with only four seniors (Hunwick, Wohlberg, Glendening, Pateryn) and not many early defection possibilities (Merrill, Brown). On the opposite side, if the Wolverines can hold off the slimier-than-the-ol'-Southwest-Conference OHL's advances, they bring in a freshman class that will have an immediate impact on the roster. First, the big names in Jacob Trouba (predicted to go in the top 10 of next year's NHL draft), Boo Nieves (another predicted first rounder) and Jared Rutledge. These three represent the top prospects available at D (Trouba), forward (Nieves) and goalie (Rutledge), and will all get loads of ice time immediately. To go along with those three, Connor Carrick (US U-18 team), David Milne (USHL) and Justin Selman all bring talent that should push the current roster. This results in a Michigan roster that, going forward, looks mighty strong and promises to keep the Michigan boys in the tournament and title contention for the foreseeable future.
  

Football:

• 2011 Thoughts: This year's Michigan football team has me so frustrated, yet they are 7-1 with the possibility of still playing for a Big Ten Championship. I love what Greg Mattison has brought to the table already, and look forward to having great defenses again at Michigan. I think Brady Hoke is a good coach with great intangibles, we'll see if that's good enough to keep the job. I think Al Borges is a little bird-brained at times, but I also understand it's hard to change what you've always done to fit your personnel and appreciate that he's trying. In the end, I see this year's team going 10-2 (as I predicted in August) and missing the inaugural title game. Still, a good showing in the bowl, and we're doing alright, getting good grades.
  
• Why The Future's So Bright: Brady Hoke rocks my recruiting junkie world! I have always loved following recruiting, and seeing the quality and quantity of recruits Brady is bringing in has me all tingly in my nether regions. Combine that with the fact that the Wolverines are only getting rocked by departures on the defensive line (hopefully Big Will and Death Roh are ready to step up after a year under Mattison), and next year's team looks like a good team already depending on what the freshmen bring to the table. While next year is Denard's senior season and I want to predict great things, that future season is nowhere near as bright as the few to follow, with Devin's senior season and the rise of Shane Morris...ooh, I get shivers down my spine just thinking of it.

So in summary, while my five years living in Ann Arbor will go down as the worst stretch for Michigan athletics collectively in history, the future is crazy bright by my estimation. This current trio of coaches (Brady Hoke, John Beilein, Red Berenson) are all at different points in their careers, but they do have one thing in common: they are all heavenly blessed and worldly wise, and leading my Wolverines to new heights! Now if only the athletic department was being led by such a leader...but that's for another day and another post. Go Blue!

My Tigers Offseason Plan

First off, let me start with a disclaimer: I have complete confidence in Dave Dombrowski and will not claim to know better than him and his staff. This post is purely how I would try to improve on a team which made the ALCS in 2011 and hopes to take that next step in 2012 to give Detroit it's first World Series title since 1984. With that, let's move on to my plan.

Current Roster/Salary + Projected Salary

The Tigers will most likely boast a salary around $100 mil, following arbitration and picking up of options. Moving forward, I predict that Illitch will allow the salary to reach close the average from 2008-2010 of $123 mil, so let's say the Tigers have $23 mil to play around with this offseason. Now let's find the needs this team has to fill.

Upgrades Needed
Looking at the Tigers current roster, I see four areas where the team needs to improve or fill a hole.

1. Second Base: The revolving door that was second base for Detroit last year needs to become more stable for the Tigers in 2012. Last year saw Wil Rhymes, Scott Sizemore, Danny Worth, Ryan Raburn, Carlos Guillen and Ramon Santiago all get playing time at second base, a testament to the mediocre play the Tigers received from that position all year. Carlos Guillen and Ramon Santiago are most likely leaving via free agency, Rhymes and Worth will get shots to make the team in spring training but aren't the solution, Sizemore was traded and Raburn will continue in his role coming off the bench.
2. Third Base: Another spot that saw lots of turnover throughout the year, this was more due to the fact that Brandon Inge finally went from semi-useless fan favorite to completely useless fan favorite...but golly gee wiz, we love him! Don Kelly attempted to provide an upgrade there, ultimately failing. Wilson Betemit was acquired at the trade deadline, and while he provided an upgrade over Inge, Leyland does not seem to like Betemit at the hot corner for his team.
3. Fifth Starter: While the Tigers could go after a more expensive front-line starter, I see the top four of Verlander, Scherzer, Fister, Porcello as strong enough as it is, especially considering the ages of those four suggest natural improvement moving forward. Instead, the Tigers should get a veteran to step into the fifth starter role and battle Jacob Turner and Andy Oliver for that final position heading into next season, with the loser of the battle entering the bullpen and being protection as the sixth starter.
4. Backup catcher: Alex Avila is a stud catcher, no doubt. Yet he faltered in the postseason after being required to carry the load the entire season due to Victor Martinez being too injured (i.e. too old) to play behind the plate. By moving Victor Martinez to DH full-time (now that Guillen and Ordonez are no longer filling that position), the Tigers optimize the offensive output of their lineup. This unfortunately requires the addition of another catcher to the roster.

What I Would Have the Tigers Do

1. First priority in my mind: third base. Brandon Inge is no longer a viable Major Leaguer. Accept that, Tigers fans. He'll always be a Tiger, beloved in Detroit. So play out the contract as a backup, be a power bat off the bench, save the knees for playing with the children during retirement and replace Rod Allen as television color analyst. My dream signing: Aramis Ramirez to a 3 year deal, at about $16-18 mil a year. That would fill the Tigers hot corner until Nick Castellanos will be ready to step into the position, while putting a great bat into the Tigers lineup. If they strike out on Ramirez, resign Betemit to a 2 year deal.
2. Next, find a second baseman. The goal in my mind: Find someone who is good to great defensively who also is average to above average with the bat. The reason: The upgrade at third base should result in enough offense to cover a mediocre second base, so defense should be a priority. My dream signing: Aaron Hill. Give Hill a 3 year deal, worth somewhere between $18-24 mil. This solves the second base problem and puts a grinding defensive second base who has shown hot streaks with the bat into the Tigers lineup. Immediately Brandon Inge is forgotten by the Tigers faithful. If they strike out on Hill, sign Jamey Carroll to a short term deal.
3. Third, find a cheap veteran starter who can eat innings in case Turner or Oliver aren't able to grab the spot in Spring Training. There is no dream signing in this spot, but my top three, in order of preference: Jason Marquis, Joel Pineiro, Paul Maholm. Get one of those three and the rotation is set even if the young starters aren't ready, and the bullpen is stronger if they are.
4. Finally, backup catcher. Best scenario is to find a right-handed bat, which can allow Avila and his left-handed bat to sit against southpaws. Dream signing: Ryan Doumit. Doumit would be the dream scenario, but that assumes no one would be willing to give Doumit a shot at starting, which in my estimation is a pipe dream. More realistic dream: sign Chris Snyder. If they strike out on Snyder, sign Kelly Shoppach.

If all goes to my plan, the perfect offseason sees Illitch allow the salary to go a little past $123 mil and the Tigers sign Aramis Ramirez, Aaron Hill, Jason Marquis, and Ryan Doumit, creating an offense to rival any in the AL and providing depth to one of the best young rotations in the league.

My more realistic prediction: Tigers sign Aaron Hill, Wilson Betemit, Jason Marquis, and Kelly Shoppach and use some of the extra cash to maybe sign an extra reliever to compete with Ryan Perry and Daniel Schlereth to create a stronger bullpen behind Valverde, Benoit, Alburquerque, and Coke.

Let the offseason begin!

Howdy

Hello readers of my blog. I look forward to using this space in the future as a way to let my ideas about the world of sports run free. I do follow most sports, so expect an eclectic collection of topics from the world of sports. Hopefully this results in an enjoyable read for those who do stumble upon this and some responses and good debate on my takes on various sports-related subjects. That is all for now.

Thank you and here's to hopefully a sports-intensive future together!

Andrew Seid