Tuesday, November 1, 2011

My Tigers Offseason Plan

First off, let me start with a disclaimer: I have complete confidence in Dave Dombrowski and will not claim to know better than him and his staff. This post is purely how I would try to improve on a team which made the ALCS in 2011 and hopes to take that next step in 2012 to give Detroit it's first World Series title since 1984. With that, let's move on to my plan.

Current Roster/Salary + Projected Salary

The Tigers will most likely boast a salary around $100 mil, following arbitration and picking up of options. Moving forward, I predict that Illitch will allow the salary to reach close the average from 2008-2010 of $123 mil, so let's say the Tigers have $23 mil to play around with this offseason. Now let's find the needs this team has to fill.

Upgrades Needed

Looking at the Tigers current roster, I see four areas where the team needs to improve or fill a hole.
  1. Second Base: The revolving door that was second base for Detroit last year needs to become more stable for the Tigers in 2012. Last year saw Wil Rhymes, Scott Sizemore, Danny Worth, Ryan Raburn, Carlos Guillen and Ramon Santiago all get playing time at second base, a testament to the mediocre play the Tigers received from that position all year. Carlos Guillen and Ramon Santiago are most likely leaving via free agency, Rhymes and Worth will get shots to make the team in spring training but aren't the solution, Sizemore was traded and Raburn will continue in his role coming off the bench.
  2. Third Base: Another spot that saw lots of turnover throughout the year, this was more due to the fact that Brandon Inge finally went from semi-useless fan favorite to completely useless fan favorite...but golly gee wiz, we love him! Don Kelly attempted to provide an upgrade there, ultimately failing. Wilson Betemit was acquired at the trade deadline, and while he provided an upgrade over Inge, Leyland does not seem to like Betemit at the hot corner for his team.
  3. Fifth Starter: While the Tigers could go after a more expensive front-line starter, I see the top four of Verlander, Scherzer, Fister, Porcello as strong enough as it is, especially considering the ages of those four suggest natural improvement moving forward. Instead, the Tigers should get a veteran to step into the fifth starter role and battle Jacob Turner and Andy Oliver for that final position heading into next season, with the loser of the battle entering the bullpen and being protection as the sixth starter.
  4. Backup catcher: Alex Avila is a stud catcher, no doubt. Yet he faltered in the postseason after being required to carry the load the entire season due to Victor Martinez being too injured (i.e. too old) to play behind the plate. By moving Victor Martinez to DH full-time (now that Guillen and Ordonez are no longer filling that position), the Tigers optimize the offensive output of their lineup. This unfortunately requires the addition of another catcher to the roster.
What I Would Have the Tigers Do
  1. First priority in my mind: third base. Brandon Inge is no longer a viable Major Leaguer. Accept that, Tigers fans. He'll always be a Tiger, beloved in Detroit. So play out the contract as a backup, be a power bat off the bench, save the knees for playing with the children during retirement and replace Rod Allen as television color analyst. My dream signing: Aramis Ramirez to a 3 year deal, at about $16-18 mil a year. That would fill the Tigers hot corner until Nick Castellanos will be ready to step into the position, while putting a great bat into the Tigers lineup. If they strike out on Ramirez, resign Betemit to a 2 year deal.
  2. Next, find a second baseman. The goal in my mind: Find someone who is good to great defensively who also is average to above average with the bat. The reason: The upgrade at third base should result in enough offense to cover a mediocre second base, so defense should be a priority. My dream signing: Aaron Hill. Give Hill a 3 year deal, worth somewhere between $18-24 mil. This solves the second base problem and puts a grinding defensive second base who has shown hot streaks with the bat into the Tigers lineup. Immediately Brandon Inge is forgotten by the Tigers faithful. If they strike out on Hill, sign Jamey Carroll to a short term deal.
  3. Third, find a cheap veteran starter who can eat innings in case Turner or Oliver aren't able to grab the spot in Spring Training. There is no dream signing in this spot, but my top three, in order of preference: Jason Marquis, Joel Pineiro, Paul Maholm. Get one of those three and the rotation is set even if the young starters aren't ready, and the bullpen is stronger if they are.
  4. Finally, backup catcher. Best scenario is to find a right-handed bat, which can allow Avila and his left-handed bat to sit against southpaws. Dream signing: Ryan Doumit. Doumit would be the dream scenario, but that assumes no one would be willing to give Doumit a shot at starting, which in my estimation is a pipe dream. More realistic dream: sign Chris Snyder. If they strike out on Snyder, sign Kelly Shoppach.
If all goes to my plan, the perfect offseason sees Illitch allow the salary to go a little past $123 mil and the Tigers sign Aramis Ramirez, Aaron Hill, Jason Marquis, and Ryan Doumit, creating an offense to rival any in the AL and providing depth to one of the best young rotations in the league.

My more realistic prediction: Tigers sign Aaron Hill, Wilson Betemit, Jason Marquis, and Kelly Shoppach and use some of the extra cash to maybe sign an extra reliever to compete with Ryan Perry and Daniel Schlereth to create a stronger bullpen behind Valverde, Benoit, Alburquerque, and Coke.

Let the offseason begin!

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