Wednesday, March 21, 2012

2012 MLB Predictions

As a Tigers fan, I've never had the ability to root for the great team. The great team of the 1980s was in the twilight of its time when I got into baseball and when it was put to rest, so were Tigers playoff hopes. I mean, the Tigers have had three playoff appearances in my lifetime, and one was the year I was born. The other two saw good Tigers teams win a playoff series or two before bowing out in poor form. This year, the Tigers are a legit contender and of course, Cabrera breaks his face during Spring Training...I don't think my heart can handle the expectations I am putting on this season (if they miss the playoffs, baseball is dead to me).

I won't go crazy in-depth and write out a novel, but here are my takes on each division

In the AL East, feel sorry for the Orioles as the other four teams are all playoff contenders with the new two wild card format. I see the Red Sox petering out and coming in at or just below .500, due to terrible pitching again. I see the Blue Jays making a run at 90 wins and Brett Lawrie becoming a household name. I see the Rays riding the best staff in the league to a wild card. I see the Yankees struggling early with the many new battery combinations, but getting hot and never looking back by June.

In the Central, it's the Tigers and really nothing else. The ChiSox are a mess and will miss having Buerhle to throw out their every fifth day. The Twins are relying on Mauer and Morneau to return from injury to past form, which, c'mon. The Indians went into the offseason needing offense and got Casey Kotchman. Sorry, that doesn't do it for me, they are a .5oo squad. The team that actually scares me in the Central is Kansas City. There offense will be scary good at times, Eric Hosmer will be an MVP candidate, but ultimately, their terrible rotation will be their downfall in 2012. Soon though, this Royals team will be a perennial thorn in the Tigers' side.

The AL West will be a two-horse race. Seattle has some good young offensive talent and some great arms on the way, but it's still a good two years away from being a cohesive contender. Oakland saw the writing on the wall, realized they weren't gonna compete with LA and Texas this year and instead loaded up on talent by trading Gio Gonzalez and Trevor Cahill. I love the move, as they will use this season to get all that talent acclimated to the bigs and should be ready to battle next year. Texas and Los Angeles are two goliaths, both capable of beating anybody and should be fun watching these two in a heavyweight battle all year for the division.

Out east in the senior league, I see the Mets losing close to 100 games and David Wright in another uniform soon. The Nationals contend, but the big story out of Washington will be the midseason call-up of uber-prospect Bryce Harper. The Phillies are the NL's most disappointing team and miss the playoffs for the first time since 2006 due to the sudden retirement of Chase Utley (BOLD prediction) and Ryan Howard's poor return from the blown Achilles. The Miami Marlins feed off their fans enthusiastic embrace of the new fish tank and unis, come together as a playoff team and makes me hate life as Ozzie Guillen is once again, in the spotlight. Finally, the Atlanta Braves dominate the second half thanks to the best young rotation in the NL and ride that wave to their first division title since 2005.

The NL Central boasts the worst team in the league, and honestly, it doesn't look even close. The Astros are going to break the 100 loss mark and end their run in the NL on a low note. The Cubs will continue their makeover under the new regime and struggle to avoid 90 losses, but will provide fans a glimpse at the future with the arrivals of Brett Jackson, Trey McNutt, and Anthony Rizzo at some point this season. The Brewers could easily win this division if the offense comes together, but I don't see it and see a .500 season instead. The Pirates end the longest streak of losing seasons in pro history and ride Andrew McCutchen to around 85 wins. The Reds play great all season, but lose a one-game playoff at home when they decide to go with new ace Mat Latos and his high fly-ball rate leads to a few too many D'Backs dingers. The defending champion Cardinals prove that they can do it without Pujols and win a surprisingly competitive Central.

Finally, we head out to the NL West. The Padres roll in with a last place finish, but they aren't terrible and the careers of Yonder Alonso and Casey Kelly get started very well, bringing hope for 2013. The Dodgers avoid the basement solely because a team with an MVP candidate and Cy Young winner can't lose that many, but the rest of the team needs to recapture their former abilities if this team wants to do any better than fourth. The Rockies ride a scary offense to 90 wins, but the young rotation falters down the stretch and costs them a wild card berth. The Diamondbacks take advantage of the falter, and sneak into the playoffs when Paul Goldschmidt, Jason Kubel, and Justin Upton all go long off Latos in the playoff game. Finally, the Giants finally have some sort of offense to trot out with their superior pitching and pull away to 100 wins and a division title.

Time for my predictions that will be held against me in 6 months when September rolls around and the Orioles and Cubs are the best teams in the league. The AL is very top heavy with only seven contenders for five spots in my mind. The NL, on the other hand, have about 11 teams capable of getting over 90 wins and grabbing a playoff spot, but with only 5 spots, it's anyone's guess who will do so.

Division Winners:
AL East: New York Yankees
AL Central: Detroit Tigers
AL West: Los Angeles Angels
AL Wildcards: Texas Rangers, Tampa Bay Rays

NL East: Atlanta Braves
NL Central: St Louis Cardinals
NL West: San Francisco Giants
NL Wildcards: Florida Marlins, Arizona Diamondbacks

Wildcard Round: Rays get revenge, D'Backs win another
Division Series: Yankees beat Rays, Tigers beat Angels; Giants beat D'Backs, Braves beat Cardinals
Championship Series: Tigers beat Yankees; Braves beat Giants
World Series: Tigers beat Braves for first World Series since 1984

(I'm a homer, deal with it)

I'm Back!

Apologies readers for my absence. This past month saw me take a trip to Indy and Ann Arbor, prepare for and subsequently take a midterm, and finally (and really the major reason for lack of writing), fight off a cold so brutal, that I'm sure this particular strain dragged itself straight out of hell. I'm still writing at Talk Sports/Drink Beer as well, so continue to check that out. Anyways, I thought I'd drop my thoughts on a few topics real quick for y'all.

NFL Offseason
Let's start with the major move: the Cowboys signing of Brandon Carr just took them to the next level. Oh and some guy named Manning signed in Denver, but we'll get back to that. The Cowboys foray into the free agent market has been great, upping the talent in the secondary and creating more flexibility come draft day. Now the Cowboys can afford to trade down and pick up an extra pick or two and not fear missing out on the top corners or safeties.
Now to that Manning signing. I like it for Denver, as they have a great defense that could make the playoffs in a mediocre AFC West with Tebow at QB. If Manning struggles, then you get essentially the same level of play at QB. If Manning returns to old Manning, now you are a Super Bowl contender. Win-win, and add in an extra win for Elway, who now can trade Tebow without fear of a riot at Mile High. The best landing place for Tebow: Jacksonville. It's the one place he can start at quarterback and replicate his Denver tenure (MJD running takes the pressure off Tebow to throw to win). And for Jacksonville, they need fans to show up bad before they are forced to become the Los Angeles Jaguars. Tebow puts fans in the seats, especially in Florida.
Finally, I love RGIII, so why did he have to go to the freaking Skins? I don't think I'll be able to handle it that first game when RGIII hits Boys-killer Santana Moss for a game-winning 90 yard bomb...and there goes all confidence I had in the Cowboys. That team will be the death of me.
NCAA Hockey and Basketball Tourneys
First, the basketball tournament. Michigan lost, yes, but really, this team was never a title contender in my mind, so losing in the first round to Ohio or the Sweet 16 to UNC really changes nothing. We still are seeing the loss of only two players, who talent-wise were never great, and replacing them with three top recruits (and the return of Horford from injury). I can't wait for next season to arrive! Quick note on the loss as well: I also can't be mad when Michigan saw Ohio's typically mediocre three point shooters hit everything they threw up and Michigan missed nearly a dozen layups. You miss gimmes, your opponent shoots above their capabilities, you lose. Basketball is simple...freaking layups...

The hockey tournament is what matters to me. Since I first started attending UM, I realized quickly that there is nothing better than college hockey, especially come tournament time. Unfortunately, the NCAA tournament being a one-and-done format equals chaos and heartbreak of an extreme level. This season will be no different and I just hope that for once, it's the Wolverines that come out on top. The hot teams entering the tournament are North Dakota and Boston College and luckily for Michigan, those two are on the opposite side of the bracket. A win over Cornell on Friday, followed by a win over the Denver/Ferris St winner and Michigan will be in the Frozen Four for the third time in five seasons, with a chance to finally break through and win that first title since 1998. My prediction: Michigan handles the defensive-oriented Cornell pretty easily (our D ain't too shabby themselves, so the offensive advantage should be the difference), then faces Denver. The Pioneers already beat the regular season champs of every other conference and will end Ferris's first tourney since 2003 quickly. I think Denver is good, but Hunwick will do what he did last season and refuse to allow the Wolverines to lose in his final season in net for Michigan. I see Michigan making the Frozen Four...now I'll just go find a corner to sit in and hate myself for jinxing them.
Spurs and Wings Playoff Races
In the NBA, the Spurs are playing so well (and doing so without Manu!), setting themselves up for yet another high playoff seed. I truly believe this team can make another run at a title, though I don't think they can beat everybody to do it. They need to avoid great interior teams (PLEASE no Grizzlies again) and avoid a hot-shooting team. Finally, the trade for Stephen Jackson has been knocked as a downgrade from RJ, but I don't understand that sentiment at all. Jackson has always been a better defender than RJ and it wasn't like Jefferson was shooting the lights out. Add in the fact that when Captain Jack heard that he was heading back to the Spurs, he was so excited, HE CRIED TEARS OF JOY! This is a man that has always talked about his love for the Spurs and plays with such intensity that I truly believe he's going to be an asset on and off the court for this playoff run.

For the Wings, I have one thought: injuries suck. The Wings have proven that they are one of the elite teams this season, but unfortunately, the injury bug hit the team and hit it hard the past month, costing the Wings the number one seed in the West and even worse, most likely home ice in the first round. The past month saw injuries take out nearly half the team at one point or another and currently has sidelined Lidstrom, Franzen, Kindl, Ericsson, Helm, Joey McDonald AND Jimmy Howard. Losing half your defense and both goalies all at once is bad luck on an all-new level. The Wings now are hoping Ty Conklin can get through waivers to be the emergency starter or they will be stuck with starting the Jordan Pearce era in Hockeytown during the final weeks of play. I believe this team can beat anybody, but my lord, do they need to get healthy quick or Lidstrom and Homer's most likely final season will end rather unceremoniously.