Another Month, Some More Thoughts

Another month has passed between posts, as I battle through law school finals.  So once again, my apologies for the lack of posts.  As usual, here's my thoughts on the various teams and leagues I follow:

Tigers: Yeah, the Tigers are struggling and we could start freaking out, calling for massive changes.  I don't think that's necessary this early on.  The offense is struggling, but we can't expect Miggy and Prince to struggle this mightily the entire season. Once they get on track, which they will, the rest of the offense will follow.  The starters have been terrible (outside of Smyly and JV) and that is, was and will be an area of concern.  I believe that Porcello is pitching better than he ever has, and the results will catch up with that; that Scherzer is Dr Jekyll and Mr Hyde and we just gootta live through those terrible outings; and that once Fister returns, the rotation will solidify and the team will go on a major run. With the weak division the Tigers inhabit, they can hover at .500 and still be solidly in the hunt, so no fears in the early going.

Wings: Nothing more frustrating than a series like we just saw.  The Wings easily could have been up 3-0 after the first three games, but instead, a couple garbage goals and a hot Rinne, and the Wings were down 2-1.  After that, the momentum was in the Preds corner and the Wings just couldn't switch it back in their favor. What makes this most disheartening is to see the road left for a Cup run in the West. The Wings would have had the Yotes for the third year running (a team whose number they have) and then either the Kings or Blues, both teams the Wings have had success against.  A few bounces our way and the Wings would have been the most talented and experienced team left in the West. Ugh, what could have been...

Spurs: I'm more excited for these playoffs than I have been in years.  This Spurs team runs 12 (!!!) deep, scores at will, has an MVP candidate in Tony Parker, has the veteran wiles of Stephen Jackson, Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobili, and Matt Bonner, and the youthful legs and exuberance of Gary Neal, Kawhi Leonard, Danny Green, DeJuan Blair, and Tiago Splitter.  Oh, did I forget that they also have Boris Diaw, James Anderson, and Patty Mills (the 13th man, who just went off to end the season).  The first round series is against a tough Jazz team, but the Spurs dominated them all season (the one loss was a last second loss without TD, Manu, and Tony playing).  I see the Spurs winning in 5, with one game where the Jazz feed off a great SLC crowd and wins late.  The second round will be either the Grizzlies or Lob City.  I know this is crazy talk, but I want Memphis. I want revenge for last season, I want to play the team that "was obviously better".  Yeah right! With a healthy Manu and Z-Bo not hitting every shot he takes, this series will be much different. Finally, GO SPURS GO!

Cowboys: I absolutely loved the Cowboys offseason.  They needed to strengthen their biggest weakness, the secondary. They did so by replacing Alan Ball, Abram Elam, and Terrence Newman with Brandon Carr, Brodney Pool, and Mo Claiborne.  That is such an amazing job by Jerry Jones, especially when you consider that the offense and rest of the D really stayed intact.  Next, they upgraded other areas, replacing Keith Brookings with Dan Conner, Jon Kitna with Kyle Orton, and Tony Fiammetta with Lawrence Vickers. None major, but all making the Cowboys a much stronger team overall.  I was disgusted with the Cowboys last season and couldn't care less for this upcoming season, but Jerry Jones is one of the best for a reason.  He went out and made the team a legitimate contender for the Giants and Eagles in the NFC East.  I'm as excited as I could ever be for the NFL in April.

Miscellaneous: Bryce Harper is a freaking stud. I watched most of that Nats/Dodgers game last night and it was amazing to me that he is only 19 years old...all this talk about fights and dirty play in the NHL is overblown and here is why: the first round saw multiple rivalries and whenever you have hated rivals facing each other in do-or-die in the playoffs, you will have fights, no matter how clean the teams usually are (see Suns/Spurs).  Second, this is the first season of the focus on head injuries.  The NHL is being overcautious with head injuries and as a result, more suspensions came that way as well.  My guess: we will see nothing else like it the rest of the playoffs, unless we get Rangers/Flyers next round...Finally, I watch pretty much every sport and have a team/participant that I root for in every sport. Ask a sport, and I'll tell you about it and my favorite.  But up until recently, UFC was just not my thing.  Enter Jon "Bones" Jones.  The UFC Light Heavyweight champion and youngest champ ever is a blast to watch, my favorite fighter since seeing him at UFC 94.  His style is right up my alley and keeps me entertained.  After this last fight against Rashad Evans, I truly believe that Jones will go down as one of the best fighters UFC has ever seen, along with Anderson Silva.  We truly are watching greatness right now in the UFC.

2012 MLB Predictions

As a Tigers fan, I've never had the ability to root for the great team. The great team of the 1980s was in the twilight of its time when I got into baseball and when it was put to rest, so were Tigers playoff hopes. I mean, the Tigers have had three playoff appearances in my lifetime, and one was the year I was born. The other two saw good Tigers teams win a playoff series or two before bowing out in poor form. This year, the Tigers are a legit contender and of course, Cabrera breaks his face during Spring Training...I don't think my heart can handle the expectations I am putting on this season (if they miss the playoffs, baseball is dead to me).

I won't go crazy in-depth and write out a novel, but here are my takes on each division

In the AL East, feel sorry for the Orioles as the other four teams are all playoff contenders with the new two wild card format. I see the Red Sox petering out and coming in at or just below .500, due to terrible pitching again. I see the Blue Jays making a run at 90 wins and Brett Lawrie becoming a household name. I see the Rays riding the best staff in the league to a wild card. I see the Yankees struggling early with the many new battery combinations, but getting hot and never looking back by June.

In the Central, it's the Tigers and really nothing else. The ChiSox are a mess and will miss having Buerhle to throw out their every fifth day. The Twins are relying on Mauer and Morneau to return from injury to past form, which, c'mon. The Indians went into the offseason needing offense and got Casey Kotchman. Sorry, that doesn't do it for me, they are a .5oo squad. The team that actually scares me in the Central is Kansas City. There offense will be scary good at times, Eric Hosmer will be an MVP candidate, but ultimately, their terrible rotation will be their downfall in 2012. Soon though, this Royals team will be a perennial thorn in the Tigers' side.

The AL West will be a two-horse race. Seattle has some good young offensive talent and some great arms on the way, but it's still a good two years away from being a cohesive contender. Oakland saw the writing on the wall, realized they weren't gonna compete with LA and Texas this year and instead loaded up on talent by trading Gio Gonzalez and Trevor Cahill. I love the move, as they will use this season to get all that talent acclimated to the bigs and should be ready to battle next year. Texas and Los Angeles are two goliaths, both capable of beating anybody and should be fun watching these two in a heavyweight battle all year for the division.

Out east in the senior league, I see the Mets losing close to 100 games and David Wright in another uniform soon. The Nationals contend, but the big story out of Washington will be the midseason call-up of uber-prospect Bryce Harper. The Phillies are the NL's most disappointing team and miss the playoffs for the first time since 2006 due to the sudden retirement of Chase Utley (BOLD prediction) and Ryan Howard's poor return from the blown Achilles. The Miami Marlins feed off their fans enthusiastic embrace of the new fish tank and unis, come together as a playoff team and makes me hate life as Ozzie Guillen is once again, in the spotlight. Finally, the Atlanta Braves dominate the second half thanks to the best young rotation in the NL and ride that wave to their first division title since 2005.

The NL Central boasts the worst team in the league, and honestly, it doesn't look even close. The Astros are going to break the 100 loss mark and end their run in the NL on a low note. The Cubs will continue their makeover under the new regime and struggle to avoid 90 losses, but will provide fans a glimpse at the future with the arrivals of Brett Jackson, Trey McNutt, and Anthony Rizzo at some point this season. The Brewers could easily win this division if the offense comes together, but I don't see it and see a .500 season instead. The Pirates end the longest streak of losing seasons in pro history and ride Andrew McCutchen to around 85 wins. The Reds play great all season, but lose a one-game playoff at home when they decide to go with new ace Mat Latos and his high fly-ball rate leads to a few too many D'Backs dingers. The defending champion Cardinals prove that they can do it without Pujols and win a surprisingly competitive Central.

Finally, we head out to the NL West. The Padres roll in with a last place finish, but they aren't terrible and the careers of Yonder Alonso and Casey Kelly get started very well, bringing hope for 2013. The Dodgers avoid the basement solely because a team with an MVP candidate and Cy Young winner can't lose that many, but the rest of the team needs to recapture their former abilities if this team wants to do any better than fourth. The Rockies ride a scary offense to 90 wins, but the young rotation falters down the stretch and costs them a wild card berth. The Diamondbacks take advantage of the falter, and sneak into the playoffs when Paul Goldschmidt, Jason Kubel, and Justin Upton all go long off Latos in the playoff game. Finally, the Giants finally have some sort of offense to trot out with their superior pitching and pull away to 100 wins and a division title.

Time for my predictions that will be held against me in 6 months when September rolls around and the Orioles and Cubs are the best teams in the league. The AL is very top heavy with only seven contenders for five spots in my mind. The NL, on the other hand, have about 11 teams capable of getting over 90 wins and grabbing a playoff spot, but with only 5 spots, it's anyone's guess who will do so.

Division Winners:

AL East: New York Yankees

AL Central: Detroit Tigers

AL West: Los Angeles Angels

AL Wildcards: Texas Rangers, Tampa Bay Rays

NL East: Atlanta Braves

NL Central: St Louis Cardinals

NL West: San Francisco Giants

NL Wildcards: Florida Marlins, Arizona Diamondbacks

Wildcard Round: Rays get revenge, D'Backs win another

Division Series: Yankees beat Rays, Tigers beat Angels; Giants beat D'Backs, Braves beat Cardinals

Championship Series: Tigers beat Yankees; Braves beat Giants

World Series: Tigers beat Braves for first World Series since 1984

(I'm a homer, deal with it)

I'm Back!

Apologies readers for my absence. This past month saw me take a trip to Indy and Ann Arbor, prepare for and subsequently take a midterm, and finally (and really the major reason for lack of writing), fight off a cold so brutal, that I'm sure this particular strain dragged itself straight out of hell. I'm still writing at Talk Sports/Drink Beer as well, so continue to check that out. Anyways, I thought I'd drop my thoughts on a few topics real quick for y'all.

NFL Offseason

Let's start with the major move: the Cowboys signing of Brandon Carr just took them to the next level. Oh and some guy named Manning signed in Denver, but we'll get back to that. The Cowboys foray into the free agent market has been great, upping the talent in the secondary and creating more flexibility come draft day. Now the Cowboys can afford to trade down and pick up an extra pick or two and not fear missing out on the top corners or safeties.

Now to that Manning signing. I like it for Denver, as they have a great defense that could make the playoffs in a mediocre AFC West with Tebow at QB. If Manning struggles, then you get essentially the same level of play at QB. If Manning returns to old Manning, now you are a Super Bowl contender. Win-win, and add in an extra win for Elway, who now can trade Tebow without fear of a riot at Mile High. The best landing place for Tebow: Jacksonville. It's the one place he can start at quarterback and replicate his Denver tenure (MJD running takes the pressure off Tebow to throw to win). And for Jacksonville, they need fans to show up bad before they are forced to become the Los Angeles Jaguars. Tebow puts fans in the seats, especially in Florida.

Finally, I love RGIII, so why did he have to go to the freaking Skins? I don't think I'll be able to handle it that first game when RGIII hits Boys-killer Santana Moss for a game-winning 90 yard bomb...and there goes all confidence I had in the Cowboys. That team will be the death of me.

NCAA Hockey and Basketball Tourneys

First, the basketball tournament. Michigan lost, yes, but really, this team was never a title contender in my mind, so losing in the first round to Ohio or the Sweet 16 to UNC really changes nothing. We still are seeing the loss of only two players, who talent-wise were never great, and replacing them with three top recruits (and the return of Horford from injury). I can't wait for next season to arrive! Quick note on the loss as well: I also can't be mad when Michigan saw Ohio's typically mediocre three point shooters hit everything they threw up and Michigan missed nearly a dozen layups. You miss gimmes, your opponent shoots above their capabilities, you lose. Basketball is simple...freaking layups...

The hockey tournament is what matters to me. Since I first started attending UM, I realized quickly that there is nothing better than college hockey, especially come tournament time. Unfortunately, the NCAA tournament being a one-and-done format equals chaos and heartbreak of an extreme level. This season will be no different and I just hope that for once, it's the Wolverines that come out on top. The hot teams entering the tournament are North Dakota and Boston College and luckily for Michigan, those two are on the opposite side of the bracket. A win over Cornell on Friday, followed by a win over the Denver/Ferris St winner and Michigan will be in the Frozen Four for the third time in five seasons, with a chance to finally break through and win that first title since 1998. My prediction: Michigan handles the defensive-oriented Cornell pretty easily (our D ain't too shabby themselves, so the offensive advantage should be the difference), then faces Denver. The Pioneers already beat the regular season champs of every other conference and will end Ferris's first tourney since 2003 quickly. I think Denver is good, but Hunwick will do what he did last season and refuse to allow the Wolverines to lose in his final season in net for Michigan. I see Michigan making the Frozen Four...now I'll just go find a corner to sit in and hate myself for jinxing them.

Spurs and Wings Playoff Races

In the NBA, the Spurs are playing so well (and doing so without Manu!), setting themselves up for yet another high playoff seed. I truly believe this team can make another run at a title, though I don't think they can beat everybody to do it. They need to avoid great interior teams (PLEASE no Grizzlies again) and avoid a hot-shooting team. Finally, the trade for Stephen Jackson has been knocked as a downgrade from RJ, but I don't understand that sentiment at all. Jackson has always been a better defender than RJ and it wasn't like Jefferson was shooting the lights out. Add in the fact that when Captain Jack heard that he was heading back to the Spurs, he was so excited, HE CRIED TEARS OF JOY! This is a man that has always talked about his love for the Spurs and plays with such intensity that I truly believe he's going to be an asset on and off the court for this playoff run.

For the Wings, I have one thought: injuries suck. The Wings have proven that they are one of the elite teams this season, but unfortunately, the injury bug hit the team and hit it hard the past month, costing the Wings the number one seed in the West and even worse, most likely home ice in the first round. The past month saw injuries take out nearly half the team at one point or another and currently has sidelined Lidstrom, Franzen, Kindl, Ericsson, Helm, Joey McDonald AND Jimmy Howard. Losing half your defense and both goalies all at once is bad luck on an all-new level. The Wings now are hoping Ty Conklin can get through waivers to be the emergency starter or they will be stuck with starting the Jordan Pearce era in Hockeytown during the final weeks of play. I believe this team can beat anybody, but my lord, do they need to get healthy quick or Lidstrom and Homer's most likely final season will end rather unceremoniously.

Tourney Prediction Feb 26

The regular season is done in the ECAC, CCHA, and Atlantic Hockey, with the bottom teams kicking off the tournaments next week for each. Hockey East and the WCHA all have one more week of regular season hockey to set up their conference tournaments, but that's all fine and dandy because ladies and gentlemen, TOURNAMENT TIME is here BABY!!!

Here is this week's predicted tourney bracket, with two changes from the straight pairwise rankings. I swapped Merrimack with Denver to avoid a HE first round matchup but to still keep Merrimack out east. I then swapped Minnesota and Miami to put the Gophers in St Paul (where they are required to be as hosts). After that, it seems like attendance is as good as possible everywhere, as the eastern regionals are tough to make strong attendance-wise due to only 6 eastern-based teams making the tourney as of today.

East Regional (Bridgeport - 8,412)

4 Ferris St 15 Merrimack

5 BU 12 Northern Michigan

West Regional (St Paul - 18,064)

1 UMD 16 Air Force

7 Minnesota 9 Union

Midwest Regional (Green Bay - 8,709)

3 Michigan 14 North Dakota

6 UMass Lowell 11 Michigan St

Northeast Regional (Worcester - 12,239)

2 BC 13 Denver

8 Miami 10 Maine

Tourney Prediction Feb 20

With one week left in the regular season for a couple conferences, here's my latest NCAA Tourney prediction:

East Regional (Bridgeport - 8,412)

3 UMass Lowell 13 Ohio State

6 BU 12 Denver

West Regional (St Paul - 18,064)

2 Michigan 15 Cornell

8 Minnesota 10 Michigan St

Midwest Regional (Green Bay - 8,709)

4 Ferris St 14 North Dakota

5 UMD 11 Miami

Northeast Regional (Worcester - 12,239)

1 BC 16 Air Force

7 Union 9 Maine

How to Make Our Hot Wings Better

The Wings are scary good right now, doing it all while Hank and Dats are struggling MIGHTILY. I wrote about this over at Talk Sports/Drink Beer, but I'll say it again, the Wings are a contender for the Cup this year. At the same time, I can honestly say, at this point in time, that there are no prohibitive favorites to win it all as there are a good amount of strong teams and it'll truly come down to who's playing at the top of their games come May.

On that note, that brings up the main point of this stream of thought: the Wings need to make a move or two at the deadline to increase their cushion to make errors, solidify those weak points in the lineup. After watching this team a lot the past few weeks, I've come to a few conclusions:

• The power play is struggling not from the players on the PP, but the fact that those players are in a slump. The puck is still moving as crisply and cleanly as ever, and the Wings are getting their opportunities, they just don't have puck luck right now. With Mule connecting on the PP the last couple games, I truly believe all these calls for making a move for a player based on the PP is short-sighted.
• Speaking of slumps, Dats, Hank and Franzen are the three best offensive players on the Wings, hands-down. They also were the three players struggling the most to find the net recently. The past six games, the Wings have scored 17 goals, eight of which have come from Jiri Hudler and Drew Miller. The next six are spread among such game-changers as Cory Emmerton, Danny Cleary, Todd Bertuzzi, and Valtteri Filppula. Out of those 17, only three come from the Big Three, and those goals came as two on the power play by Franzen and Hank's gift goal last night. This is the big area I believe the Wings need to solidify. While it's great right now, that's because Emmerton, Hudler and Miller are playing well. We can't rely on those boys carrying the offense.
• Finally, I'm very impressed by the play of the defense this year. Lidstrom is proving once again why he's the Norris T-1136, a cyborg sent back to protect the Wings' Cup hopes from annihilation by Skynet...err, the Western Conference. His pairing with Ian White have played as good as any in the league this year, a strong statement considering they play in the same division as the vaunted Weber-Suter combo. The second pairing of Kronwall and Stuart has been strong all year and continues to provide a great second pairing to send out against a deep opponent. Finally, the pairing of Kindl and Ericsson scared the bejeezus out of me earlier this year, but now I honestly can breathe most of the time they are on the ice. The defense isn't a dire need to be fixed.

So what areas should the Wings address at the trade deadline? I think the Wings should go after a top-6 forward, someone who can take the pressure off the Big Three and give the Detroit offense a little cushion for error when the Big Three are slumping. Preferably, get somebody who can step into Homer's role on the top two lines and push Homer down to the third line. While that would be a great addition, it's a piece that isn't necessary and overpaying is not necessary, when the Wings are set up to go into this offseason with enough cap space to sign a replacement for Nick AND a forward. The necessary addition, in my opinion, would be a second pairing defenseman who can join the third pairing, for the inevitable time when Ericsson or Kindl implodes. This would make the defense that much stronger and should be much cheaper to acquire. I believe that this alone would be the key move of the deadline and a way for the Wings to make themselves as strong as possible.

In the end, if the Wings makes no moves at the deadline, I will not be greatly disappointed. While I believe a move is recommended, I don't believe it's necessary and should not be a reason for blame if the Wings flame out in the playoffs this season.

NCAA Hockey Tourney Prediction Feb 6

On the day that the most famous in-season tournament gets underway (the Beanpot), my first look at the end of the season tournament in two weeks presents some intriguing tourney match ups and regionals.

Northeast Regional (Worcester - 12,239)

1 BU 13 Michigan St

8 Merrimack 10 Notre Dame

West Regional (St Paul - 18,064)

2 Michigan 15 North Dakota

7 Minnesota 9 Maine

East Regional (Bridgeport - 8,412)

3 UMass Lowell 14 Northern Michigan

6 BC 11 Union

Midwest Regional (Green Bay - 8,709)

4 Ferris State 16 Air Force

5 UMD 12 Ohio State

Now the explanation for how I came to these regionals:

I began by putting the four one seeds in the regionals, with BU to Worcester, Michigan to St Paul, Lowell to Bridgeport and Ferris to Green Bay. I followed that with the two seeds, with the host school Minnesota going to St Paul, Duluth to Green Bay, BC to Bridgeport, and Merrimack to Worcester. Through the first two lines of seeds, the tournament is looking great, with all 8 schools as close to home as their seeding allows.

The next two lines were subsequently matched up and resulted in two interconference matchups: Ferris St-Michigan St and Merrimack-Maine, one on each line. The first solution is the easiest, as attendance issues were a non-factor in that decision. Maine couldn't be switched with Union (would just create another interconference matchup), so either way a western team was going east and an eastern team going west. The choice was to keep bracket integrity as close as possible, thus Notre Dame to Worcester and Maine to St Paul (it doesn't hurt sending Notre Dame to the Boston area, either).

The next was the tougher decision because trying to keep bracket integrity in this situation was near impossible. Moving MSU off the Ferris game had only one other option and that was swapping with the 16 seeded Air Force. Unfortunately that means the top team in the tourney gets stuck with the toughest four seed. The only other solution I could come up with was sending Northern to Worcester, MSU to Bridgeport, and Air Force to Green Bay. But does that make the bracket integrity better? I decided it did not, so instead I did solely a MSU/Air Force swap, and voila, there's this week's bracket.

Time to start getting excited folks, conference tournaments start in less than a month!