My best friend, Kevin Gregus, and I used to do a weekly podcast. From that podcast sprung this mock draft, a simple attempt to capture our takes on the NFL draft in written form before discussing on our podcast. In 2018, this exercise went on hiatus as Kevin restarted his career path with a journey through seminary on the way to priesthood. While the podcast is no more, we've decided to start this annual exercise back up in 2024. Let's see what six years of life-altering experiences has done to our writing style and draft decision-making!
The Rules
The rules are simple: After years of hiatus, with the Bears holding the first pick, it only made sense to have Kevin take the odd picks this year, and I take the evens.
In addition to the basic premise, we set guidelines for making our picks. We are picking as we think the teams should and not as we think they will. This is a "if we were the GMs, this is our thinking" mock draft, not a "this is who we think that particular GM will pick" mock draft. That rule is simply because it's more fun to think of what a smart GM would do rather than to try to guess at what moves teams are gonna make without having front office connections, insight into interviews/background checks, and the inevitable blindside from not-great front offices. Also, in that same vein, we won't mock trades, so the picks are what they are.
Without further ado, the return of our mock draft!
The Draft
1. Chicago Bears (via Carolina) - Caleb Williams, QB, USC
The Justin Fields experience in Chicago was one of great promise and extreme frustration. As has become the pattern in Chicago, Fields was drafted by a previous coaching and management regime, and then forced to adapt as new systems were put into place that seemed to force him to go against the type of quarterback he actually was. In 2023, he had a mildly improved offensive line and a legitimate #1 WR in DJ Moore. However, the subpar gameplans of OC and Packers' sleeper agent Luke Getsy put him in situations in which he was doomed to fail. While he remains an electric runner and athlete, the lack of interest in the trade market showed what NFL teams think of his ability to be a consistent QB. So why all this talk of Fields in a draft post? Because this is the situation that a rookie QB will find himself in, and it's similar to the other QBs the Bears have drafted. As the season wore on, it became clear that Chicago was looking to move on to a top QB prospect with the top pick they got from Carolina.
Caleb Williams has been hyped as an elite prospect and a #1 overall pick since he started in college, winning the Heisman in 2022 at USC as a sophomore. His build, arm strength, accuracy, and athleticism point to a player who can succeed in sports' most demanding position - the dude makes plays. The tape speaks for itself; Williams has all the raw tools needed. He doesn't have Fields' running ability, but he is able to move around and scramble when needed. There are concerns about his decision making, his leadership ability, and his penchant for hero ball which led him to hold the ball too long (which are all issues Fields had too). Despite the similarities, there are two big advantages Williams will inherit in Chicago. One is a vastly improved WR corps that includes Moore and new acquisition Keenan Allen, as well as TE Cole Kmet and a rookie WR that could be selected with their #9 pick. The other is a new OC that has some history with QB development. Shane Waldron arrives from the same position in Seattle having resurrected the career of Geno Smith and comes from the Sean McVay coaching tree. While Waldron hasn't developed a true rookie QB, there should at least be consistency and a plan that utilizes the actual strengths of the personnel. An argument can be made for the other top QB prospects, and I'd be tempted to take JJ McCarthy if the Bears had a proven coaching staff. Jayden Daniels may have a higher ceiling and Drake Maye looks more like a traditional QB. However, the Bears can't pass up on the promise and current pure talent of Williams, and the Trojan becomes the next man up to step in and solve the perennial QB woes of the Chicago Bears.
2. Washington – Drake Maye, QB, North Carolina
It's a new era in Washington with Dan Snyder out and the Josh Harris group in. They've already started cleaning house, trading away a lot of players during the season last year and firing the front office and Ron Rivera coaching staff. Now, the new front office group and Dan Quinn coaching staff have some work to do to rebuild a formerly proud franchise. The first pick will need to be a quarterback as the current QB depth chart consists of Marcus Mariota, Jeff Driskel and Jake Fromm, not really a murderer's row of talented passers to build a team around. This is the chance to get a talented young QB to join the team and the Commies will make sure they take the chance.
The choices, with Caleb Williams off the board, are Drake Maye, Jayden Daniels, and JJ McCarthy. All three are very talented quarterbacks with risky profiles, so none are can't miss prospects, but all have the ability to be franchise quarterbacks. Drake Maye is a supremely talented QB who reminds some of Josh Allen, a raw playmaker who was able to win at a program not known for winning, but never good enough to be considered a generational talent. Jayden Daniels is someone who has shown the ability to rack up the yards and touchdowns but is known for making decisions that puts himself in harm's way. JJ McCarthy is a proven winner who ran a pro-style offense and was a leader from day one for the Wolverines and able to make the plays needed to win a game, but he didn't need to throw to win in the offense, so he has the least tape of any of the quarterbacks. At the end of the day, while Jayden is probably the most electric option, I think the fear of a repeat of RGIII is a real thing in DC. Instead, they go with the QB who has been seen as a great NFL prospect from day one in Chapel Hill and can spend some time behind Mariota to start the year while he develops to become the franchise QB the Commanders need.
3. New England – Jayden Daniels, QB, LSU
The need for a quarterback is the theme of this year's top draft picks. In the case of the Patriots, it comes in the wake of their first new head coach since the Clinton administration. Former Pats LB Jarod Mayo takes the helm left by Bill Belichick amidst a massive rebuild for New England. They've also moved on from QB Mac Jones, who really regressed after a promising rookie year. The Patriots offense currently has very few weapons, lacking a true #1 WR and employing their usual rotation of RBs that don't have consistent in-season success. So, unlike Chicago and Washington, whoever takes over the QB spot in New England won't have quite the personnel to work with. They also have one of the weaker offensive lines in the league. There are two top QB prospects to choose from at this spot - the 2023 Heisman winner or the 2023 National Champion. It's unclear what kind of timeline Mayo will be given to return the Pats to the championship ways, but one would bet a quick turnaround will be all but demanded.
New OC Alex Van Pelt has dealt with many QBs in his time, most recently in Cleveland's 2023 season that had them using five starters with Joe Flacco taking them into the playoffs. Presumably, any rookie would be safe in his development program. To listen to his priority for a QB - "A guy who's a true leader who can come in and understands his teammates and gets the best out of those guys" - one would say that Michigan's JJ McCarthy fits the bill to a tee. However, McCarthy is the less proven as "the guy" given Michigan's offense and really would benefit in an offense that is more established. Jayden Daniels, on the other hand, is more ready to start day one and help create some of the offense the Patriots are looking for. While he did benefit from LSU's seemingly endless pool of WR talent, he consistently put up big numbers with both his arm and his legs. He provides an OC with a lot of options and fits the mold of a modern NFL QB. He isn't a run-first guy, but that threat keeps defenses honest. He'll need to learn to be less reckless with his decisions, especially while running, as faster and bigger NFL defenses will make him pay. Given the current makeup of the Patriots and high ceiling, Jayden Daniels is the guy for New England to begin their true rebuild.
4. Arizona – Marvin Harrison Jr, WR, Ohio State
The Cardinals are in an enviable position as they are sitting in a position to trade down and gain valuable draft capital for building this roster out around their franchise quarterback, Kyler Murray. They also can grab the best non-QB, and in a mock draft where trades aren't possible, this is the way we go with this. It was already looking like a wide receiver was the way to go for Arizona, before free agency saw the best WR on the roster leave for Kansas City. So, the Cardinals add a star wide receiver for Kyler Murray.
The options at wide receiver are deep throughout the draft, but especially at the top, with three top 10 options, in Marvin Harrison Jr, Malik Nabers, and Rome Odunze. Odunze is a big wide receiver who would easily be the top wide receiver in most years, but this class has two receivers I would rank above him in Harrison Jr and Nabers. As the process has gone along, the trendy move to stand out is to put Nabers ahead of Marvin Harrison Jr, but I think that's ridiculous. Malik Nabers is an outstanding wide receiver that can get open with the best of them and force a defense to account for him, but Marvin Harrison Jr has been a monster from day one. Last year, while the rest of the Buckeye offense struggled at times, he was always a game changer, winning games for Ohio State by himself. He is borderline uncoverable, able to make catches that leave you blown away. From day one, Harrison Jr will change that offense, making Kyler Murray a much more dangerous QB as the offense will open up for others like Trey McBride as defenses have to focus on MHJ.
5. Los Angeles Chargers – Joe Alt, OT, Notre Dame
Like Arizona, the Chargers could benefit from trading down and rebuilding the offense that will be missing several familiar faces under new head coach Jim Harbaugh. LAC ownership was able to capitalize on Harbaugh achieving what he set out to do at Michigan, an athletic director who was dragging his feet, and the rapidly changing landscape of college football with NIL and the transfer portal. 2023 was a very disappointing season that saw several injuries to QB Justin Herbert, WR Mike Williams, and RB Austin Eckler, among others, and the latter two are now on new teams. Gone also is WR Keenan Allen as the Chargers looked to dump salary to fit under the cap. Their offensive line was one of the league's worst, stifling the running game and constantly putting Herbert under pressure until the aforementioned hand injury. The defense still has some big names and a new DC who piloted college football's #1 defense to a national title who can do a lot with versatile players like Derwin James and Khalil Mack. The most pressing draft needs are almost entirely on the offensive side of the ball, and the type of picks will provide hints as to the type of offense Harbaugh wants to run. The need to get younger on defense can be solved later in the draft.
WR is probably the most glaring need with Allen and Williams out the door. Quentin Johnston had a disappointing rookie year and Josh Palmer is not a consistent #1 type. RB has been partially addressed by getting Gus Edwards, who filled in admirably for J.K. Dobbins in Baltimore last year. In true Harbaugh fashion, they picked up a couple of tight ends who are good run blockers and can roll out for passes but they did very little to address the offensive line woes in free agency. In light of this, it's extremely tempting to take Malik Nabers here to jump start the WR room and give Herbert an elite weapon. But this is Jim Harbaugh - he wants to build the trenches, establish a run game, and protect his QB to allow him to play his style. Notre Dame's Joe Alt has the athleticism, IQ, and strength to excel in a Harbaugh-style offense. He pairs well with OT Rashawn Slater, the lone bright spot on the Chargers current OLine. Some are saying Alt struggled with RT drills at the combine, but he is the best OT available and I trust Harbaugh and his staff to insert him in the line for maximal success. Plus, Slater was a RT in college and could be moved there to let Alt start in his natural position day one.
6. New York Giants – Malik Nabers, WR, LSU
The Giants enter this year after a nightmare season. Daniel Jones fell apart in the first year of his big contract and Brian Daboll watched as culture in the building imploded around him (because of him?), leading to fights with his staff and coaches quitting on him. They are now in a position where they need to turn it around to save jobs, which is why the talk that the Giants would grab a quarterback to develop for the future behind Daniel Jones doesn't make sense. Daboll doesn't have the time to wait for the fourth best quarterback to win. They've given Jones the keys, so they need to make sure he is given the best chance possible to prove he's the man for the job.
After an offseason where the Giants signed three potential starters on the offensive line, I can't see them using their first pick on the o-line. That leaves two major holes on the roster, cornerback and wide receiver. Cornerback has a couple options here that wouldn't be a reach, in Terrion Arnold and Quinyon Mitchell. I like both fits on the Giants, but with Brian Burns on this roster and a first round pick spent on corner last year, I think getting a second cornerback in a row would be a mistake. So, we look at Nabers and Odunze. With WanDale Robinson, Jalin Hyatt, and Darius Slayton, they have a lot of wide receivers that would be much better with a number one taking the attention of the defense. While I love what Odunze does, Nabers has the athleticism necessary to force doubles, lifting the entire wide receiver corps, giving Daniel Jones no excuses, and giving the offensive-minded Daboll nowhere to hide.
7. Tennessee – Taliese Fuaga, OT, Oregon State
Like many of the teams with a top ten pick, the Titans have a new coach. Mike Vrabel being let go was one of the more surprising moves of the offseason, but it happened, and Bengals OC Brian Callahan is in to bring Tennessee back to the playoffs. Gone also is RB Derrick Henry, the workhorse of the last several seasons. The Titans are sticking with QB Will Levis, who had an up and down rookie year and battled injuries due to a weak offensive line. WR DeAndre Hopkins had a rebound year, and they added Calvin Ridley to the WR corps, along with RB Tony Pollard to replace Henry.
There are two glaring needs for Tennessee: offensive and defensive line. Levis was under fire all year and they often left Henry to fend for himself. The defensive front couldn't create any pressure and had issues stopping the run, which means they need help at every spot on the line. With Callahan being an offensive guy, I see the Titans addressing the offensive line with their top pick. There are still top talents available in Taliese Fuaga from Oregon St., Troy Fautanu from Washington, and Olumuyiwa Fashanu from Penn St. The best option is Fuaga, who excelled as a run blocker and has the athleticism, size, and intelligence to play all along the front to protect Levis and spring Pollard free.
8. Atlanta – Dallas Turner, Edge, Alabama
The Falcons are another team with a new coach going into this season. After last season's disappointing performance, the Falcons moved on from Arthur Smith after the offensive coach couldn't get the job done with a pretty strong offensive skill group. The biggest issue with this team was at quarterback and the Falcons went out and paid Kirk Cousins to come in and elevate the offense. This offense, with Cousins, Bijan Robinson, Kyle Pitts, Drake London, and Rondale Moore should be good from day one for new head coach Raheem Morris. So, where do the Falcons go with this pick?
This is a very easy pick, as the Falcons have been one of the worst pass rush teams of the past decade. With a new coach whose background is in defense, the Falcons will spend this pick giving him the best edge rusher on the board. This pick will help his defense from day one and hopefully help a pass rush that continues to struggle despite having a stud at DT in Grady Jarrett. Dallas Turner will bring a monster talent at edge, someone who can help the new 3-4 defense which is severely lacking at edge after losing its best two pass rushers from last season in Calais Campbell and Bud Dupree. This is a very straightforward match for team need and best player available, as Turner is the best defensive player on the board.
9. Chicago – Rome Odunze, WR, Washington
Having already picked up their greatest need and securing a QB for the future, the Bears can focus on rounding out the roster around Caleb Williams. What they really need is more draft picks, and a trade down so that a QB-needy team can grab JJ McCarthy makes a lot of sense. No trades in the mock, so let's check the other areas of need. They could use another offensive weapon out wide, especially if Allen's doesn't extend with the team. They could use an edge rusher opposite of midseason pickup Montez Sweat. They could use a big defensive tackle to soak up blockers and allow Sweat and the LB crew free to rush and pick off runners. They could use a safety to replace Eddie Jackson and pair with Jacquon Brisker. They could use an offensive tackle to match with last year's first rounder Darnell Wright. Given all these needs, what do they prioritize?
Offensive line can be addressed later, since it's a matter of needing a center and depth. There aren't any safeties that scream out for a top 10 pick, and it is also not a position of immediate need with the pickup of Kevin Byard III. They would have loved to have snapped up Dallas Turner, but he was just selected by the Falcons the pick before, so Jared Verse is the top edge available. For weapons, both WR Rome Odunze and TE Brock Bowers are available and could have immediate impact in the offensive game plan. On the defensive interior, Byron Murphy II is the clear top choice, especially with his run stopping ability and constant motor. Given all this, I think the choice is between Odunze and Murphy. Given that they just spent the #1 pick on a QB, I want to give him every possible chance to succeed and give Williams one of the best WR rooms in the league. The Bears take Odunze and his sure hands, physical size, and ability to come down with the football.
10. New York Jets – Brock Bowers, TE, Georgia
Going into the offseason, it seemed outrageous to consider the Jets selecting any offensive player that wasn't on the line. With Rodgers STILL recovering from his Achilles tear (despite the lies he loves to spew), having a QB coming back from that sort of injury to a porous o-line seemed like a disaster waiting to happen. Well, Joe Douglas took care of the offensive line big time in free agency, with the pickups of Tyron Smith, Moses Morgan, and John Simpson. While Smith and Morgan aren't exactly the portraits of health, it would seem like a poor use of resources to draft an offensive lineman for a team obviously pressing to win now with an aging Rodgers and a hot seated Robert Saleh.
So, if they are trying to win now, we must fill the obvious holes in the starting lineup. On defense, that looks to be linebacker, corner and safety. As we said earlier, Arnold and Mitchell are two legit options, but is a second cornerback (opposite Sauce) the best bang for your buck? Safety would be better, but only one player is a first round safety prospect this year and that's Cooper DeJean. I really like that fit for the Jets, adding some more explosiveness to the defense and return game, something that would help the offense indirectly. Still, if we are looking for talent to help Rodgers win, the direct answer is at tight end, where a top 10 prospect has fallen into the Jets' laps. Bowers would start from day one and provide an outstanding game changer at TE, with Garrett Wilson and Mike Williams on the outside. Rodgers would have a plethora of weapons that would stress the defense on any down.
11. Minnesota – J.J. McCarthy, QB, Michigan
After allowing another team to give Kirk Cousins a big contract, Minnesota finds themselves in need of a new QB. Whoever they get is immediately paired with the best WR in the league, Justin Jefferson, and a strong offensive system under Kevin O'Connell. They also have Jordan Addison and TJ Hockenson The way this mock draft has played out could not have gone better for the Vikings. The teams between them and the top three passed on QBs, allowing them to grab a guy who could excel in their system and with whom they've long been rumored. It's very likely that a team in need of a QB will trade up into the top 5 or 10 to grab one, so in reality Minnesota will probably need to be one of the teams that trade up in order to get a QB in the first round. Regardless, they grab JJ McCarthy with the eleventh pick to follow-up on his national championship season at Michigan.
Of the top 4 QB prospects, McCarthy is the most unknown in terms of skill set. He never had to put up monster numbers at Michigan given their run-heavy offense and dominant offensive line. However, when called upon, he demonstrated a strong and accurate arm, often fitting balls into tight windows or placing them where only his man could grab it. He also is able to scramble or even do some designed runs. Even more, his leadership and character were essential for the Wolverines title run and are probably his top asset. He is very coachable, is supremely confident as a person and a passer, and has a great, calm attitude in big situations. There is certainly much to hone and develop, but there is a reason many believe McCarthy could end up being the top QB in this class. Minnesota walks away from the first round thrilled they were able to snatch McCarthy and develop him in a potentially potent offense.
12. Denver – Bo Nix, QB, Oregon
The Broncos are in a tough spot. After mortgaging their future on trades for Russell Wilson and Sean Payton, the Broncos cut bait on Russell Wilson and have a roster that is mediocre going forward while eating dead money on the Wilson nightmare extension they gave him before playing a down in Denver. Now, they are in a spot in the draft, where they either need to give up more draft capital to trade up for a QB or sit tight and miss out on the top tier of QBs. In real life, I would trade back, pick up lots of draft capital to start rebuilding and grab Bo Nix or Michael Penix Jr later in the first or early second (especially since the Broncos lack a second due to the trade for Payton). Unfortunately, we can't do that here either, so I have a choice to make: grab the QB they desperately need (right now, their depth chart is Jarrett Stidham and Ben DiNucci...woof) or fill one of the myriad other holes on this roster.
The top players available right now on my board are: Olu Fashanu at OT but Denver has a solid pair of tackles in McGlinchey and Bolles, so that seems like a waste (unless they've already decided they are moving on from Bolles after 2024); Mitchell and Arnold at CB, but they already have Surtain at CB1, so once again, do we double down at CB, maybe in a division with Mahomes and Herbert, but not the greatest value play; Laiatu Latu and Jared Verse at edge and Byron Murphy II at DT. Those last three are the true options, as the Broncos defensive line is a mess, ranking 28th against the run last year and unable to pressure the QB since trading away Bradey Chubb and Von Miller. Latu's medicals scare me, so I would go Verse if I went edge, but their complete inability to stop the run leads me to want to grab Byron Murphy II and focus on edge later. So the decision comes down to whether we take the stud DT at good value at 12 or reach and take Bo Nix (with his late first round grade)? While I may regret it, I think Bo Nix can do well in the right situation and Sean Payton will do everything in his power to make sure Nix is in the right situation to succeed.
13. Las Vegas – Quinyon Mitchell, CB, Toledo
The Raiders are the latest team to inexplicably try out Josh McDaniels as a head coach, realize it's a terrible idea, and then fire him midseason. His interim replacement, Antonio Pierce, went 5-4 and turned it into a full time gig. While neither Aiden O'Connell nor new acquisition Gardner Minshew are likely the long term solution at quarterback, it's not a position of immediate need given what's available at this spot. They grabbed one of the top free agents in DT Christian Wilkins in the offseason to shore up the defensive interior. They replaced RB Josh Jacobs, who had a down year, with Alexander Mattison, so an improvement can be made, though not in the first round.
Their greatest needs are along the offensive line and cornerback. There are several good options here for both positions. At OT, Troy Fautanu, Olu Fashanu, and JC Latham are all worthy first round selections. At CB, the top options are still available in Quinyon Mitchell and Terrion Arnold, or Cooper DeJean if they want a guy who is more versatile. Given the top DB talent still available here, the Raiders take Mitchell, an elite cover corner. He plays the aggressive, physical style that NFL coaches love and has the athleticism and reaction time to keep up with any WR in the league.
14. New Orleans – Olumuyiwa Fashanu, OT, Penn State
The Saints were mediocre last year in their first year with Derek Carr at the helm. They enter this year with Carr back at QB, a strong contingent of skill players, and needing to fix the trenches, where they struggled last year. To fix it, they spent big money in free agency on Chase Young to bring strength off the edge, but still could use an upgrade on the offensive line and at defensive tackle. There are solid options at both positions available, with Byron Murphy II and multiple offensive lineman. I love the idea of putting Murphy on the d-line with Young, to turn what was a weakness last year, into a strength, but it makes more sense to help out the offensive line with such talented players available here that will get wiped out by the time their second round pick comes around.
At OT, the Saints have the older Ryan Ramczyk at right tackle and Trevor Penning, former first round pick from 2022, at left tackle. Penning has been poor in his two years in the league, so it makes sense for the Saints to bring in some competition for Penning here. Their options here are Olu Fashanu, a big athletic tackle from Penn State; JC Latham, someone who makes more sense at right tackle; Troy Fautanu, someone who could be a tackle in the NFL but projects better at guard in the NFL; and Amarius Mims, another monster athletic tackle from Georgia whose a little more raw than Fashanu. My choice came down to Fashanu or Fautanu. I love the idea of Fautanu coming in and stepping into left guard from day one, with the idea of replacing Ramczyk or Penning in the long run, but Fashanu is the best offensive lineman on the board and I'd rather have the best player available and figure it out later between him and Penning (maybe moving Penning to the inside to salvage that pick).
15. Indianapolis – Terrion Arnold, CB, Alabama
The Colts 2023 season will be remembered as a disappointment not just because they missed the playoffs, but because their top pick and quarterback of the future Anthony Richardson went down early in the season with a shoulder injury. Prior to that, he was showing some real promise, although it was his semi-reckless play led him to be injured in the first place. Gardner Minshew filled in decently and allowed for the emergence of rookie WR Josh Downs and the further development of Michael Pittman. After a holdout, RB Jonathan Taylor returned to form a potent tandem with Zach Moss, who left for Cincinnati in the offseason. The AFC South has quickly become very competitive, so Indy needs some impact players to start day one.
They did a good job resigning their best players in the offseason, so the needs are mostly depth related, which points to a good potential to trade down for more picks. They do need a CB, some help on the defensive edge, and some more offensive weapons to take the pressure off Richardson's run game. Given their position in the first round, cornerback makes the most sense. Alabama's Terrion Arnold is a true outside cover corner with a good build and elite athleticism. He positions himself well and has a nose for causing turnovers. He's not as polished as other DBs in the draft, but he has serious CB1 potential to develop along with the Colts' other young CB, JuJu Brents.
16. Seattle – Troy Fautanu, OG, Washington
The 2024 season will be the first season for the Seahawks in the post-Pete Carroll era, with new head coach Mike McDonald. While it makes sense to grab a defensive player for the defensive coach trying to build an identity on defense, the Seahawks have a major problem on the interior of their offensive line. The Seahawks currently have only three guards on the roster, a free agent signing in Tremayne Achrum from LA, a fourth round pick from last year in Anthony Bradford, and McClendon Curtis, a depth guard. That is the weakest position group by far on the team and they could definitely use an addition with this pick who can start from day one.
As I said previously, Troy Fautanu could play tackle in the NFL, but here is a guy who can play from day one at guard for Seattle. Add in the fact that he's a local guy from the University of Washington and you have a pretty straightforward pick for the new look Seahawks. Fautanu immediately starts, joining Abraham Lucas, Charles Cross, and Olu Oluwatimi as a solid young core to serve as the protection for Geno Smith. This pick elevates the offense and allows McDonald to build the defense with later picks.
17. Jacksonville – Cooper DeJean, CB/S, Iowa
After overcoming the disastrous Urban Meyer stint, the Jaguars surprised many by getting to the playoffs in 2022 and winning in the wild card round. It appeared that Trevor Lawrence was ready to break out and take the Jags on a run that would cement their status on the top of the AFC South for several seasons. However, 2023 was a regression for both Lawrence and the team, as they collapsed down the stretch and ceded control of the division to Houston. In the offseason, the Jags resigned a good chunk of their defense, including star pass rusher Josh Allen. They also signed DL Arik Armstead to help make the defensive line one of the league's best. On offense, they added WR Gabe Davis to replace Calvin Ridley, who had an up and down year and who they will see twice a year in Tennessee.
Jacksonville's biggest needs are on the outside on both offense and defense. They could use some youth and depth on the offensive and defensive lines, but this can be addressed later. At 17, the Jags are in no position to grab one of the elite options at WR and are too high to reach on one considering the depth of this year's WR class. Brian Thomas, Jr. and Adonai Mitchell could certainly help and start day one, but given the players available and the need for a defensive back, it would be wise for them to focus there. Their most productive DB, Darious Williams, left for the Rams, and the guys they signed aren't long term solutions. Given the need at multiple spots in the defensive backfield, Iowa's Cooper DeJean is a good choice. DeJean is an explosive athlete and made a name for himself in the special teams return game. His versatility is a huge asset and seems to be all over the field on defense. While he is coming off a broken leg, there isn't much concern that he won't be able to go in training camp.
18. Cincinnati – Byron Murphy II, DT, Texas
The Bengals had a rough season last year after entering the year as favorites with the Chiefs and Bills to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl. Instead, they finished the year 9-8 and missed the playoffs for the first time since 2020. To make matters worse, the window for this current group seems to be closing as players are moving on, looking for paydays the Bengals can't afford due to contracts for Burrow and Chase. With Mixon, Reader, and Boyd already out the door, and Tee Higgins probably to follow, this team is in need of an infusion of cheap young talent. Enter the draft!
As usual, the needs for Cincinnati starts with protecting Joe Burrow. The offensive line continues to be poor and is never a bad idea to grab an o-lineman to bolster the talent. A player like JC Latham could start from day one, replacing the older Trent Brown at RT. Amarius Mims could play at RT, but would need time to develop and will probably sit behind Brown for at least a year. I think either are good fits, but neither are slam dunks to replace Trent Brown immediately. On the flip side, there is someone who could step in and start on day one with a major impact on the Bengals. Byron Murphy II is a monster at 3 tech, a game-wrecker in the middle of the line. His pass rush win rates in college were top notch, a usual indicator of success at the next level. He could rotate with BJ Hill and Sheldon Rankins until he gets up and running, with the inevitability of replacing BJ Hill when his contract expires after this season. This is a guy who would make the Bengals defensive line intimidating, which is necessary in a division with Nick Chubb, Derrick Henry, and Lamar Jackson.
19. Los Angeles Rams – Laiatu Latu, Edge, UCLA
Following their 2021 Super Bowl title, the Rams have quickly become a middling team. 2023 was an improvement, as they got hot to end the season before losing to the Lions in the wild card round. WR Puka Nacua was the surprise of the year, but a weak offensive line prevented Sean McVay's offense from reaching its full potential. The defensive front and backfield also underperformed, and that was with Hall of Fame DT Aaron Donald, who shockingly announced his retirement in the offseason. The Rams need to get younger at multiple positions and begin to plan for life without Matthew Stafford, that is unless you believe Stetson Bennett is an NFL-caliber QB. The needs are heavy for a team that is drafting among playoff-ready teams.
LA can go in multiple directions here. They would do well to take the top option at offensive line, defensive edge, defensive tackle, or cornerback. I think the departure of Donald moves them to focus on the defensive line. If they go edge, Jared Verse and Laiatu Latu represent a 1a1b option after Dallas Turner. On the interior, Jer'Zhan "Johnny" Newton has been moving up draft boards, with some putting him above Byron Murphy, who was just selected by the Bengals. The Rams want the most ready option, so they take local boy Latu to boost the pass rush. The concerns of his neck injury seem to be past. His combination of NFL-level intelligence and rush skills cause him to get chosen over Verse.
20. Pittsburgh – JC Latham, OT, Alabama
Another year, another winning record for Mike Tomlin and the Pittsburgh Steelers. The season ended in defeat to the Buffalo Bills, followed by an offseason of great turnover. The entire quarterback room is new, with Russell Wilson, Justin Fields, and Kyle Allen signed to rejuvenate a room that had stagnated with Kenny Pickett and Mason Rudolph at the helm. At wide receiver, the Steelers shipped out Diontae Johnson to Carolina and replaced him with Van Jefferson and Quez Watkins. Additionally, they brought in Patrick Queen from the rival Ravens and Donte Jackson at cornerback in the deal with Carolina for Diontae Johnson. So what further change is necessary to keep the streak alive in the Steel City?
Yet again, we have a team with needs in the trenches. Pittsburgh could use someone like Jared Verse, to provide depth at edge rusher, rotating with Alex Highsmith to complement TJ Watt. They could use someone like Johnny Newton, a defensive tackle to rotate with Larry Ogunjobi and Cam Hayward, eventually replacing the aging Hayward. The duo of Jackson and Joey Porter Jr is a nice start, but the cornerback room ranked near the bottom of the league last year, so a player like Nate Wiggins would fit. I like all those options, but with a quarterback like Russell Wilson potentially starting for Pittsburgh, the best bang for the buck would be a tackle like JC Latham. Latham could come in and start at RT, moving last year's first round pick, Broderick Jones, to LT and providing stellar bookends to the line for the next decade.
21. Miami – Graham Barton, OG, Duke
After the offseason, this year's Dolphins will have a new look, especially on defense. They lost DTs Christian Wilkins and Raekwon Davis, CB Xavien Howard, and LB Jerome Baker, as well as G Robert Hunt all to free agency due to cap concerns. They brought on 7(!) new DTs to try and fill the gaps. They still sport a potent offense, though they struggled down the stretch and were bounced early from the playoffs. Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle are a top 3 WR tandem, but inconsistent offensive line play and injuries hampered Mike McDaniels' schemes. Rookie RB De' Von Achane was having a breakout year before injuries caused him to miss a big chunk, though Raheem Mostert took advantage and will give Miami a nice 1-2 punch. They did add TE Jonnu Smith to bolster a thin positional group.
Needs in the draft are not immediate, but they need depth and youth at several positions. Even though they brought in a ton of DTs, they could still stand to get a potential star there to replace Wilkins, and Johnny Newton is available. They need improvements on the interior offensive line. On the defensive edge, they have two stellar DEs that are both coming off injuries, and Jared Verse could provide a great rotation piece as a rookie. They could also use a #3 WR, as the talent drops off sharply after Hill and Waddle. Given their issues keeping the offensive line healthy in 2023 and the need to keep Tua Tagavaolia upright, the Dolphins should prioritize an o-lineman who can start on the inside with the potential to swing to the outside as needed. Washington's Troy Fautanu would have been ideal, but he's staying in Seattle. Instead, Miami takes Graham Barton, another college tackle who projects as an interior lineman. He likely doesn't have the build to last as an NFL OT, but his versatility is still a benefit as he can move along the line. He's quick and explosive, with good technique and aggression, and has the ability to start right away.
22. Philadelphia – Nate Wiggins, CB, Clemson
The Philadelphia Eagles imploded last season, after starting the year 10-1, they finished the regular season 11-6 and bombed out of the playoffs in the wild card round to the Tampa Bay Bucs. That led to a complete shakeup of the coaching staff, confirming my take that the Eagles were built on the backs of Jonathan Gannon and Shane Steichen. Now, they ask whether a change in coordinators (to Vic Fangio and Kellen Moore) will prop this talented roster back to its previous heights or if it truly was the roster that imploded last year. As a result, there are a few areas where it may make sense to start looking for depth, I think there are only two real areas of concern on this roster: interior offensive line and cornerback.
For the interior offensive line, the concern is the loss of Jason Kelce. Currently, the Eagles plan to move guard Cam Jurgens over to center, but that leaves a gaping hole at right guard currently occupied by last year's third round pick, Tyler Steen. The Eagles have the option here, to select a player like Jackson Powers-Johnson to come in and fill that hole (at either guard or center, with Jurgens moving to the other slot). The other concern is a secondary that ranked 31st in a league of 32 teams, with two aging starters and a bunch of failed former SEC corners as depth. The Eagles need someone who can push Bradberry to more of a rotational role. The two best options are Nate Wiggins of Clemson and Kool-Aid McKinstry of Alabama. While I like Kool-Aid and think the Eagles infatuation with Georgia and Alabama players would lead them to picking him, Wiggins is the more often higher rated corner of the two. As a tall corner with elite speed, he'll be able to step in from day one to push and hopefully replace Bradberry as CB2 to Slay, with the long term of being CB1 for this Eagles defense.
23. Minnesota (via Cleveland through Houston) – Jared Verse, Edge, Florida State
The Vikings picked up an additional first round pick from the Texans in a recent trade of draft picks. They are in rebuild mode and they are looking to get more high-end pieces right away. It's likely that these two first rounders will be paired together to move up from #11 and grab the QB they want, but in this mock, they've already grabbed JJ McCarthy. Whether he starts backing up Sam Darnold or not, he'll have plenty of offensive weapons. They signed Aaron Jones to be the lead back and RB Ty Chandler improved as the season went on. #1 WR Justin Jefferson is a QB's dream, #2 Jordan Addison had a nice rookie year, and TJ Hockenson showed himself to be a top 5 TE, though he'll start the season on the PUP list after a serious knee injury ended his 2023 season. Minnesota also has one of the best pass blocking offensive lines in the league.
While it's tempting to add another offensive piece to maximize JJ's success, the defense needs some serious help. The pass rush had issues, and that was with Pro Bowl edge Danielle Hunter, who is now on the Texans. Jonathan Greenard and Andrew Van Ginkel were good offseason acquisitions, but the Vikings still need help here. The interior of the line is in better shape and did well against the run, and could benefit even more with a better pass rush. Cornerback is also a thin position, as the returning guys struggled in 2023 despite having one of the better safety tandems in Harrison Smith and Josh Metellus. Kool-Aid McKinstry is a solid options to slide in at CB, but I'm going to the edge here because Jared Verse is still available. Verse excels as a pure pass rusher with a high motor and superior strength. He's ready to contribute day one and will benefit from a strong defensive interior and LB corps.
24. Dallas – Amarius Mims, OT, Georgia
So what are the holes and how can they fill them in this first round? On defense, they could use another linebacker to challenge Damone Clark and Demarvion Overshown for the second starting gig alongside Eric Kendricks, but there are no first round value LBs in this draft. They could also use another cornerback, with Kool-Aid McKinstry filling in behind Trevon Diggs and DaRon Bland, but that's more of a luxury pick compared to the offensive roster holes. Those holes are much more significant, as currently the Cowboys have a need at center, tackle/guard, and running back. We'll start at running back, where the Cowboys currently will be deciding between Rico Dowdle and Deuce Vaughn for starter. They MUST use an early pick to add one of the top running backs. Luckily, there are no first round RB prospects this year, so that can wait until their second round pick, when players like Jonathon Brooks or Trey Benson make more sense. So, this pick will be for the offensive line. At center, Jackson Powers-Johnson is a perfect fit for Dallas, a center who will start from day one. The only reason not to take him is that Dallas will have very good center options in the second and third round. On the flip side, Dallas has Tyler Smith at LG, where he is All-Pro level. He could move out to LT, if there was a guard fit here. Unfortunately, my ideal guard in Graham Barton went three picks earlier, so instead, Dallas will leave Tyler Smith on the interior and grab Amarius Mims, a mid-first rated OT who will be expected to start from day one at LT for the Cowboys. Is that ideal? Obviously not, but with a stud like Tyler Smith next to him, hopefully he can develop quickly into the blindside protector the Cowboys desperately need to replace the departed Tyron Smith.
25. Green Bay – Jackson Powers-Johnson, OC, Oregon
Welcome back to Green Bay, where the Packers seemed to have transitioned into yet another franchise QB in Jordan Love. The Packers were not expected to make the playoffs, yet were 3 points away from playing the Lions in the NFC Championship even after starting 2-5. Green Bay's coaching staff identified Love's strengths and built an offense to make him successful. Even with RB Aaron Jones missing time with injuries, the offense clicked like the top 10 unit they became. Rookie WR Jayden Reed was a breakout star in the slot, and Romeo Doubs developed nicely opposite Christian Watson on the outside. While Jones is now with the rival Vikings, Josh Jacobs is in to feature alongside AJ Dillion. Green Bay's most annoying feature is that they are young, so there is no evidence that the Packers are slowing down soon (yes I'm a Bears fan, why do you ask?).
With two picks each in the second and third round, the Packers can add depth or move up to grab a player they like. They can use improvements along the offensive line, a safety to pair with new acquisition Xavier McKinney, an edge rusher, and cornerback. Their lack of immediate needs opens the door to draft a high ceiling but raw prospect. Such an option existed in the form of Amarius Mims, the massive OT out of Georgia, but he was just snapped up by Dallas. Edge Chop Robinson also fits that bill, but it seems too high for him at this point. Instead, the Packers will go with versatility and take Jackson Powers-Johnson, the Oregon center who can also play guard. This gives Green Bay the options and the depth they need with a lineman who is an excellent pass blocker and was exposed to all sorts of schemes in a high powered college offense.
26. Tampa Bay – Chop Robinson, Edge, Penn State
Just like the other Bay before them, Tampa Bay was a surprise team last year, led by a surprise former first round pick at quarterback. This one was Baker Mayfield, establishing himself as a legit starter in this league on a Tampa Bay team not expected to compete in the NFC South. The Bucs made the playoffs, upset the Eagles, and played the Lions tough in the divisional round. They also bring back most of last year's team as they look to compete once more in a weak NFC South.
The Bucs lost their starting left guard and though they signed Sua Opeta and Ben Bredeson, neither are inspiring choices to start at LG. Unfortunately, the only remaining first round grade on the offensive line is Tyler Guyton, a tackle out of Oklahoma and not a great fit at LG. An area of weakness from last season that could be addressed is pass rush, where the Bucs were toward the bottom of the league and subsequently lost their star pass rusher in Shaq Barrett. Former first rounder Joe Tryon has been a bust thus far and last year's third round pick Yaya Diaby is the best returning pass rusher with six sacks. There are two edge rushers remaining on my board with first round grades, the uber-athletic Chop Robinson and the more stout, d-line tweener in Darius Robinson. Darius Robinson would fit better at DE in the 3-4 which Tampa runs, a role already filled by last year's first Calijah Kancey and 2022's second Logan Hall. Chop, on the other hand, would fit in the pass rushing OLB role formerly filled by Shaq Barrett, joining a crew of Tryon, Diaby, and Randy Gregory to hopefully fill that lost production by committee until Chop is ready to take the role completely.
27. Arizona (via Houston) - Jer'Zhan Newton, DT, Illinois
This is the Cardinal's second first round pick, which they got in last year's draft when the Texans moved up to take Will Anderson. They've already acquired Marvin Harrison, Jr., one of the most coveted WR prospects in recent memory. They still have a pile of needs, including another WR, which was a weak position even before the loss of Hollywood Brown to KC. On the offensive line, they could use better pass blockers and depth to replace future losses to free agency. The biggest area of weakness is their defensive front seven, which struggled to create a pass rush and was even worse against the run. They could also use improvements in the defensive backfield, though it should improve with a better pass rush.
The top choices have become a bit thinner at the end of the first round, but there are still worthy picks remaining. Tyler Guyton and Jordan Morgan at OT, Kool-Aid McKinstry at CB, Jer'Zhan Newton at DT, Brian Thomas Jr. at WR, Darius Robinson at edge, and Payton Wilson at LB could all serve as major improvements for Arizona. Of these, Johnny Newton is the top rated. The Big Ten Defensive POTY is strong as both a run stopper and pass rusher, boasting a good motor and excellent hands. He doesn't have ideal interior size, but he makes up for it with relentless and effective effort.
28. Buffalo – Brian Thomas Jr, WR, LSU
I could spend time talking about how the Bills need help at safety or along the interior of the offensive line, but let's be honest. The Bills have only one direction to go with this first round pick. If the Bills think that Josh Allen is Patrick Mahomes and can make any wide receiver better, they are sadly mistaken. Let's look at their wide receiver depth chart at the moment: Khalil Shakir, Curtis Samuel, Justin Shorter, Andy Isabella, and Mack Hollins are the top five receivers on this roster. Wooooof!
So, who are the options available? The top option is Brian Thomas Jr, a big wide receiver from LSU with fluid movements leading to big play ability. After that, there is a group of five receivers with late first-early second grades in Adonai Mitchell, Ladd McConkey, Keon Coleman, Xavier Worthy, and Troy Franklin. They each have solid profiles and could be a strong receiver for their respective teams, but only Thomas looks like a star from day one. A common retort to Brian Thomas Jr is that Malik Nabers made him look better, but consider this: Thomas and Nabers were the third pair of LSU wide receivers to reach 1,000 yards in the same season. The other two pairs? Ja'Marr Chase and Justin Jefferson and Jarvis Landy and Odell Beckham Jr. All four of those wide receivers made legitimate impacts in the NFL and Chase and Jefferson also had the benefit of playing with a Heisman-winning quarterback. Take a page out of the Vikings playbook and replace Stefon Diggs with a first round receiver from LSU. Brian Thomas Jr is the choice and will elevate the Bills offense from day one.
29. Detroit – Kool-Aid McKinstry, CB, Alabama
Yes, we do indeed live in a world in which the Lions were 3 points away from a Super Bowl appearance. In fact, they held a 17 point lead over the 49ers at halftime before a second half collapse left them on the outside looking in. Dan Campbell, the ultimate football guy, has led a talented roster built primarily through the draft into a position of being competitive for at least a few more seasons. They have a strong offensive line, an excellent running game, and two excellent pass catchers. One of these, TE Sam LaPorta, was Detroit's second rounder last year and further proof that Iowa tight ends should always be a priority for any team. The Lions had a fairly quiet offseason, resigning the guys they needed to and picking up some depth pieces. As their NFC Championship collapse showed us, the pass defense needs some massive improvements. Their top CB Cam Sutton was cut due to battery charges and they acquired Carlton Davis and Amik Robertson, but neither of them are CB1 types. They lost WR Josh Reynolds and are still waiting for Jameson Williams to show the promise he did at Alabama. They could use some more firepower on the defensive line to take the pressure off Aiden Hutchinson. Finally, they need to start looking for a future replacement for Jared Goff, unless they think Hendon Hooker is that guy.
The last first round grade WR on my board was taken by the Bills, so they should wait until the second round to grab a guy there to slot in opposite Amon-Ra St. Brown. The same is true on the offensive line. There is one remaining first round edge rusher, Darius Robinson, who could start day one. However, there is one name that has fallen down the board, who was at one point projected as a top-10 talent before injury concerns made teams waver. The good news is that his position matches the Lions' biggest need - cornerback. Alabama's Kool-Aid McKinstry started for Nick Saban as a freshman, a rarity for a team that boasts Alabama's depth and talent. He has a great CB build and plays patiently and confidently with a very physical style. He's fallen due to the discovery of a Jones fracture in his foot, which caused him to miss the combine. He's since been cleared at 100% and will be ready to jump in right away to steady a weak pass defense.
30. Baltimore – Tyler Guyton, OT, Oklahoma
The Ravens had an outstanding season last year that ended in failure in the AFC Championship game, where a team that spent the entire season building an identity of running the ball effectively to win games decided to stop running the ball. This offseason, they lost a lot of what made last year's team so good, along the offensive line, throughout the defense and on the coaching staff. As a result, there are many more holes than you would normally expect from a team that was so close to a Super Bowl appearance. They need help at cornerback, linebacker, and edge on defense, as well as at three spots on the offensive line (both guards and right tackle). They also always need help at wide receiver, but they can hold on that for later.
So what players are available in those areas of need? The Ravens can go with Ennis Rakestraw Jr or Kamari Lassiter at CB, Payton Wilson or Edgerrin Cooper at LB, and Darius Robinson at edge for the defense. On offense, Tyler Guyton is a tier above the next two options of Jordan Morgan and Kingsley Suamataia, so he would be the choice to address the offensive line. So where do the Ravens go? While I like the idea of grabbing the best linebacker to replace Patrick Queen and Darius Robinson would be a solid fit for this defense, this team cannot survive if Lamar is under fire and with three potential holes on the offensive line, they have to start fixing the line first. Tyler Guyton will come in and form a solid bookend duo with Ronnie Stanley, giving Lamar the protection from outside pressure that he needs to survive. With the addition of Derrick Henry and now Tyler Guyton, Lamar should have more protection to put up MVP numbers again.
31. San Francisco – Darius Robinson, Edge, Missouri
The Niners once again ran out of steam against Kansas City in the Super Bowl after looking like the NFC favorites all season, especially after the Eagles struggled down the stretch. Still, they are well situated to make another Super Bowl run under Kyle Shanahan. Brock Purdy has a plethora of targets at WR and TE, plus one of the most dangerous offensive weapons in Christian McCaffrey. The defense is also among the top in the league, though they will need to replace DL Arik Armstead. The draft will serve as the means to add depth and to make improvements along the offensive line. They have ten picks to work with in 2024, making them a definite candidate to trade up and grab a guy they really like.
At this spot, the two positions San Francisco should be targeting are defensive end and offensive line, though I could see them looking at cornerback or even WR due to a cap situation that could become complicated next season. At this spot, I'm looking at Edge Darius Robinson as the best fit. The last first round grade offensive lineman on my board just went in Tyler Guyton. The remaining cornerbacks are solid, but are better second round picks. The same can be said of WR prospects. I wouldn't say they are reaches by any means, but there is more talent still available. Not only is Robinson a first round edge player, but he's a good fit for the Niners. He can come in on rotation with new addition Leonard Floyd as he refines his pash rush technique. He is a good athlete and has the size and flexibility to line up at multiple positions along the defensive line.
32. Kansas City - Kingsley Suamataia, OT, BYU
What do you get for the team that can't stop winning? The Chiefs will continue to win so long as they have Patrick Mahomes, but this team is not without its faults, some of which are significant. Last year's team won in spite of the offensive skill players, as Mahomes milked every last ounce out of a receiving corps featuring a rookie (Rashee Rice), a man with hands that don't work (Kadarius Toney), a man more focused on his podcast and touring with his girlfriend (Travis Kelce), and the final embers of a career propped up by great QBs (Marquez Valdez-Scantling). They replaced MVS with Hollywood Brown, which is an upgrade, but they look to have lost Rashee Rice to a lack of brain cells (street racing). Kelce's trajectory is on the downslope too, so a wide receiver and/or tight end should be on the agenda. Additionally, their tackles are terrible, especially at right tackle, where Jawaan Taylor had 20 penalties last year, eight more than the next closest player in the NFL. On defense, the Chiefs will need to draft a replacement for L'Jarius Sneed, who was traded away, and could use a replacement at linebacker for Willie Gay. As a result, there are a lot of areas where the Chiefs could benefit here.
While linebacker would be nice, I think the true trouble spots are OT, WR/TE, and CB, so let's focus on what's available there. At OT, there is a duo of top 40 tackles available in Jordan Morgan of Arizona and Kingsley Suamataia of BYU. Both are large and athletic, but Morgan struggles in pass protection at times, which eliminates him from consideration as the number one priority is to protect Mahomes. At WR/TE, there are a ton of wide receivers available here, from outside wideouts like Adonai Mitchell and Keon Coleman to a speed demon like Xavier Worthy to a route running specialist like Ladd McConkey. While a player like Xavier Worthy or Ladd McConkey would thrive with Mahomes, they are similar to other wide receivers on the roster. Mitchell and Coleman represent a player type unseen on the Chiefs since Sammy Watkins. There are no tight ends with the right value here, but Ja'Tavion Sanders has a grade which means he could be gone before their next pick. He could be a gamechanger, as a second TE to Kelce and learning to take the reins from Kelce in the near future. Finally, at cornerback, Ennis Rakestraw Jr would be the option, the local kid from Mizzou who would start from day one as a strong man cover corner not afraid to take on number one wide receivers. I love the idea of Rakestraw on this defense and of Adonai Mitchell for this offense, but Mahomes needs protection first and foremost, so Kingsley Suamataia is tabbed to be Patrick's new best friend.
That's all folks! Our triumphant return to mock drafts is complete. The draft begins next Thursday, so watch and enjoy. I know I will be watching, hoping and praying that Dallas gets that missing piece to help make a run to the Super Bowl! Here's to your team getting that player you want when draft day rolls around.
